Internal factors behind Pakistan’s Afghan policy shift: Analysts

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Pakistan’s National Security Advisor, Sartaj Aziz, and Leader of Awami National Party and Chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Relations, Haji Adeel, said that Pakistan had long pursued a counterproductive policy in Afghanistan, but it is the time the civilian leadership should take the lead in devising Pakistan’s foreign policies. Haji Adeel quoted Sartaj Aziz as saying “Our aim is to facilitate efforts in restoring long-term peace in Afghanistan.” He was talking to the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs in an in-camera briefing on the government’s Afghan policy where he said that Islamabad has no favorites in Afghanistan. To dig into this policy change, Afghanistan Times conducted an interview with Head of the Regional Studies Center, Abdul Ghafor Lewal, and Mr. Pordali, Head of Mahmud Tarzi Think Tank. Mr. Lewal said, “Before discussing the current situation, it is necessary to go back to historical background. During the cold war ages, the Western Camp and the Arab World threw their support behind Pakistan. The role of Pakistan at that time was considered to be highly crucial. Pakistan was used as an instrument. Now Pakistan has lost that importance. Pakistan’s security establishment at that time had been enjoying unquestionable powers but now that is also losing momentum. In Pakistan these days, civil society, intellectuals, liberal political parties and nationalist forces have become powerful. Their voice is getting important and people have started thinking that the age of martial laws, military coupes, intervention in foreign countries have gone by. Now they want Pakistan to be a peace-loving and peace-supporting country. They think Pakistan shouldn’t be a threat for global security, and it should be a safe haven for militants. Moreover those fundamentalist elements, once used to be considered a strategic asset for Pakistan’s security establishment, have turned out to be posing existential threats to Pakistan. There is yet another factor as well and that’s economy.” Pakistan’s economy has been plummeting in the recent times because of plaguing militancy and extreme energy crisis. Pakistan’s economy and energy needs are changing, and in this course the importance of a secure, developed and prosperous Afghanistan for Pakistan has gone many notches higher.� To pursue their economic, energy and strategic objectives in Afghanistan, they attempted to make it Pakistan’s fifth province but they faced serious setbacks. Now they are left with no other option but to accept that they should abandon the policy of intervention and establish friendly relations with Afghanistan. The most important thing is that the US and the international community have been fearing about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Even Pakistan itself is a bit nervous if militancy catches length, ultimately its nukes will reach into the hands of militants. That’s why it wants militancy ended and relations with Afghanistan normal. Moreover, civilian leadership wants to convert Pakistan into a responsible state where its nuclear arsenals are safe and where its military generals have minimum say in Pakistan’s foreign policy. It could be done under the watch of the international community. Besides that with each passing day, nationalist movements are gaining grounds such as Pashtun nationalist movement, Baloch nationalist movement, Indian Muhajir movement such as Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) are some of the factors that have tarnished the image of Pakistan’s security establishment. Now civilian leaders, media and general publics have started questioning the role of the security establishment. And because of this change the role of the establishment once it enjoyed in the days of USSR invasion in Afghanistan, has also changed. Collectively all these factors compel Pakistani leadership to rethink its Afghan policy. Responding to a question whether Nawaz has the spleen to take the decision making power regarding Pakistan’s foreign policy from his military generals away and to vest it into the hands of Pakistan’s Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, Lewal said that Nawaz of the day is not the Nawaz of the 1999s. And the military generals of today are not the generals of 1999s. Now too many things have changed. Time is going in favor of Nawaz. This time around he can bring too many changes. Now he can tell his nation, his generals, and the international community that he wants Pakistan to be a peace-loving country. He can also say that to reach this position, Pakistan needs to overhaul its security thinking and its foreign policy. He can ask his nation to stand behind him as Pakistan has encountered many hitches because of its own wrong policies. “I am of the firm opinion that his nation will stand behind him in this juncture,” said Lewal. No one will blame him or punish him for bringing reformations in Pakistan’s foreign policies. Now Pakistan army cannot react as it had reacted against him in 1999. Talking on economic and water relations of the two countries, he said that when political relations of two countries are hostile it is economic relation that can play an effective role. It is an effective alternative. Pakistan can invest in some productive projects and I am sure this will go in favor of Pakistan. For instance if Pakistan supports Kabul in Kunar dam project, both parties will benefit from it. The project will have positive effects on agriculture and as well as energy. So it will be a two-pronged project. Pakistan can put its share in Afghanistan’s infrastructure rehabilitation and reconstruction. The environment is conducive. If Pakistan starts investing it will not only erase its tarnished image but the trust deficit will be overcome. In overcoming the trust deficit between the two countries, sending cultural delegations, establishing people to people contacts are much important. Responding to query that whether sports diplomacy, and the continuation of democracy in Pakistan, will work out in bringing the two countries closer, Lewal said that if we look into the EU model we will realize that it were not only political and government relations that brought about this change, but cultural and people to people contacts proved to be of utmost importance. Here also media, civil societies, cultural delegations and people to people contacts can bring the desired results. As you know nowadays Pakistan is caught in internal economic challenges due to counterproductive policies of the military, and this country needs to boost its economy by using all the possible ways to come out from this complexity. The one way that can help Pakistan in this area is to enhance its trade and economic relations with Afghanistan and through Afghanistan to Central Asia. It’s possible only when Afghanistan and Pakistan have friendly relations. Thus, this is one of the main reasons that obliged Pakistani politics to review its policy and strategy regarding Afghanistan, Lewal said. In the past, Pakistan always wanted to interfere in Afghanistan and to establish a puppet government in the country and Pakistani politics in the past were terming Afghanistan as Pakistan’s 5th province. All interferences and negative role of Pakistan was to implement its own objectives. But the vicious attempts failed utterly during the past decades. It is a fact that Pakistan’s Afghan policies and strategies were being drafted by the military, and civil administration had no role to implement or engineer any foreign policy. Each time the civil administration attempted it, it faced strong reaction by the military. In the past, Nawaz had tried to confront the military, and as a result he was ousted from the country for years. Civil administration never had their own appointed minister in foreign ministry. This in an indicative of the military’s hegemony on civil administration in Pakistan. Moreover, it is an issue of great significance for Afghanistan that Pakistani officials confessed that they have interfered in Afghanistan in the past and all the interferences were counterproductive. After decades, it is the first time Pakistani officials confirm the Afghan nation’s claims. “We in the past three decades have said that Pakistan had interfered in our internal affairs, but Pakistan and international community incessantly refused to hear our voices. But now, Pakistanis have confessed that their interferences have had no fruitful results for any country, neither for Pakistan nor for Afghanistan,” he said. Mr. Pordali, Head of Mehmud Tarzi Think Tank, said, “This policy shift is a positive step taken by Pakistan’s civil administration and we Afghans welcome it. But the military still calls the shots in Pakistan, and it would be difficult for Nawaz to have an upper hand in major decision-makings. “I am not very sure that a change will come by in Pakistan’s policy on Afghanistan until the military is in power. The Afghan government cannot impel Pakistan for a policy of non-intervention; Afghanistan can only wait and see until pragmatic measures are put forth by Pakistan,” concluded Pordali.