Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Pakistan: a hard road to recovery

After being entangled in the War on Terror for more than a decade, Pakistan is struggling to restore social stability. Peshawar, a hub city of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, located only 60 kilometers from the troubled borders between Pakistan and Afghanistan, looks like any other city in a developing country. Outdoor billboards featuring gorgeous women and fancy cell phones can be seen everywhere in the downtown area. The presence of armed police patrolling the streets, however, was a reminder of the potential for unrest. "It is Friday, a day on which Muslims routinely gather at mosques to pray. Crowds are often targeted by terrorists or political militants," warned an officer from the Pakistani army.
The violence
Pakistan's proximity to Afghanistan pushed it into a decade-long battle against Taliban militants. "Pakistan has gone through its worst times over the past years due to the War on Terror," said Hasib Rahman, 30, a bank employee. The war brought Pakistan's economy close to a standstill, he said. "Factories are hardly working due to an electricity and gas crisis. Other institutions are facing serious distractions due to lack of electricity." All this has caused Pakistan to be labeled one of the "most dangerous nations" in the world. In 2012 alone, Peshawar saw 140 terrorist attacks causing 170 deaths, according to a report in the People's Daily in February. After Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's death in May 2011, the US announced its plans to end the war in Afghanistan, and will withdraw all combat troops by 2014. But tensions are still high. During the Global Times' visit to Peshawar in February, journalists were protected by more than 20 armed security guards and not allowed to leave the car out of security concerns.
The sacrifice
"There used to be more than 30,000 terrorists when the Taliban was in its heyday (during 2008 and 2009), but now only about 3,000 were left," said Lieutenant General Khalid Rabbani, commander of the No.11 corps of the Pakistani Army based in Peshawar. The squad has carried out the majority of military operations of the war in Pakistani territory. The similarity in appearance between Taliban terrorists and Pakistani civilians has hampered the army's ability to determine terrorists' identities. They reside in the same tribal areas along an open boundary more than 2,000 kilometers in length, and they also share the same religious and daily customs, explained Rabbani. After being arrested, brainwashed Taliban youth are given an education and vocational training in a bid to deprogram them. At the same time, the Pakistani army has paid a huge price in this conflict. More than 3,500 soldiers lost their lives, and 11,235 were injured.
Afghanistan issue
"The instability of Afghanistan and the presence of US/NATO forces had acutely complicated the situation in the region, and the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has been borne by Pakistan," said Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, dean of the Faculty of Contemporary Studies at National Defense University in Islamabad. And even after the US withdraws all its combat troops by 2014, the stability of Afghanistan will still influence the future of its neighbor Pakistan. In Cheema's opinion, the withdrawal of US combat troops may lead to four likely scenarios for Afghanistan. "Taliban take over, division of the country, continued civil war and emergence of a stable Afghanistan." Relations between the US, China, India and Pakistan are also important factors for the future of Pakistan after the end of the war, said Wang Dehua, an expert on Pakistan issues from Shanghai Tongji University. For example, the US hopes India, which has seen strained ties with Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir, will be more engaged in Afghanistan, while Pakistan is strongly opposed to seeing India play a major role in these issues, explained Wang. "Both the US and China can encourage the regional countries and the involved factions of Afghan society to negotiate and work out a solution for their country (after the war)," suggested Cheema. However, "the US must stop thinking of giving any major role to India."
People's choice
Another more urgent challenge facing Pakistan lies in the upcoming general elections. On March 16, Pakistan's parliament was dissolved. A caretaker administration will take over the country until the elections in early May. "I think the new government will face enormous difficulties but I am sure that things will improve considerably," said Cheema, explaining that "not only the troubles caused by the presence of US forces are likely to minimize, but the elections in Pakistan are expected to elect a better new government." In his opinion, this better government is the result of people's awareness of the value of their vote and the level of governance, a relatively independent media, active vigilance and the assertive role of the judiciary. "The new government would seek peace in both Afghanistan and FATA," he predicted, adding that securing peace on its western border and focusing more on the internal situation would be the new government's priority.

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