Pakistan : Elections scenario

Daily Times

The coming elections present a scenario familiar in some respects but unrecognisable in others. The string of blasts in Quetta, Karachi, Peshawar and DI Khan bear the imprimatur of the Taliban that have vowed to disrupt, if not stop, these elections. One can therefore only sympathise with and admire the courage of those who have put life and limb on the line to carry through the democratic process. Three parties in particular, the PPP, the MQM and ANP, have been singled out by the terrorists as targets because of their secular leanings. The rest may be cocooned in silence, but post-elections they may not be able to remain as sanguine that they are safe, since the Taliban have made no secret of their antipathy for democracy. The winners in particular may well prove to be at risk across the board in the future. Given the rash of violence, voices are being heard asking for the postponement of the elections. These have been categorically countered by President Zardari and Chief Election Commissioner Justice (retd) Fakhruddin G Ebraheem with the vow that the polls will not be delayed even one day. Overseas Pakistanis will not be able to vote in this election given the inability of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the caretaker government to put the arrangements for their voting in place in time. However, given the Supreme Court’s interest (and ire at the prolonged delay of two years in the matter before it), there is every likelihood that this will come to pass long before the next elections. The final tally of candidates for 1,170 seats for the National and four provincial Assemblies makes impressive reading, despite the controversial process of scrutiny of nomination papers that brought the strange behaviour and approach of the returning officers into the limelight. According to the ECP, for the National Assembly’s (NA’s) 272 general seats, 4,671 candidates are in the field. For the 60 reserved seats for women in the NA, 258 candidates are in the running. For the reserved seats for minorities in the NA, 71 candidates are vying for 10 seats. For the 577 general seats in the four provincial Assemblies, 10,958 candidates are in the running, with 559 for 128 women’s reserved seats and 175 for 23 reserved seats for minorities. In any electoral contest, let alone one in a country beset with myriads of problems compounded by violence, this would be an impressive tally, testifying to the strength of commitment of the political class to the democratic process. However, despite the impressive numbers of candidates and the by now universally acknowledged critical importance of this democratic transition for the first time in the country’s history, there is a dark side too. First and foremost, it has to be admitted that barring a few new faces, the same cast of characters is likely to return to the Assemblies. As a class, the politicians have not exactly come out smelling of roses over the last five years. The former incumbents in particular are facing the chickens coming home to roost of five years of largely ineffectual government whose bad odour is made worse by allegations and charges (unproved so far in any court of law, it must be pointed out) of unbridled corruption and mismanagement. The PPP and its ally ANP stand squarely in the dock on this count, with the president being forced to approach the ECP regarding the campaign of ‘vilification’ being carried out against the person of the president, particularly by the PPP’s main rival, the PML-N. The president feels constrained to reply to these allegations after the Lahore High Court case in which he pledged to distance himself from partisan politics, but the fact that until recently he was the Co-Chairperson of the PPP has left him open to being dragged into the electoral fray without the right of public reply. The received wisdom at the moment amongst analysts is that the PML-N is on the rise, the PPP weighed down by the incumbency factor as much as internal problems of leadership and the threat from the terrorists, the PTI, despite its vigorous campaigning, albeit a credible challenger by now, still has a mountain to climb before it can displace the two main parties. The MQM and ANP, despite relatively stable constituencies in their areas of influence, are directly in the line of fire of the terrorists and having to tailor their campaigns accordingly. Whichever way the chips fall on May 11, the sceptics hold to the pessimistic view that the problems confronting the masses, whether unemployment, inflation, energy or sundry others are unlikely to yield to betterment no matter who wins. This mood of pessimism amongst the masses may dampen enthusiasm for the polls and affect turnout, but the historic juncture this election represents nevertheless is undeniable.