Karachi bomb is unlikely to prompt decisive action against militants

BY:Jon Boone :-Analysts say politicians are hamstrung by fear of confronting Sunni militant groups before elections

The powerful bomb used in the latest assault by religious fanatics on Pakistan's embattled Shias left 48 dead, 200 wounded and ripped away the towering facades of two multistorey housing blocks in a street in the sprawling city of Karachi. It was the third such attack on followers of an Islamic sect estimated to form between 10% and 15% of the population in as many months. And despite the nationwide protests and media handwringing provoked on each occasion, few analysts expect decisive action to stop the slaughter. They say key politicians are hamstrung by fear of confronting such groups as they gear up for elections. Once the Sunni militants who regard Shias as apostates worthy of death appeared content with a regular trickle of drive-by shootings, "targeted assassinations" and bombings of holy day processions. Now they have seized on the tactic of detonating massive bombs in Shia neighbourhoods, timed for no particular reason. A bomb used in an attack on 16 February that killed at least 84 in a marketplace in the south-western city of Quetta was so large it had to be towed into position by a tractor (the 80kg of explosives was hidden inside a water tank). The Sunni terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) claimed responsibility for two of the three mass-casualty attacks this year and is strongly suspected of being behind the Karachi bloodshed too, although it has not yet made any comment. For the militia, named after the Punjab district of Jhang to which it is historically linked, huge blasts not only maximise the numbers killed of Shias, who they hope will ultimately leave Pakistan all together. They have also proved a powerful tool of political destabilisation just as the country braces for historic general elections in a couple of months. A double bombing of Quetta on 10 January that killed more than 80 young Shias gathered in a snooker hall forced the government in Islamabad to sack its key political allies in Balochistan, the province of which Quetta is the capital. "Whether or not they had a master plan, they succeeded in overturning a democratic government in Balochistan," said Wajahat Khan, a journalist. "They have managed to tip one government over and it won't be surprising if there are more consequences to follow." The sacking of the provincial government fell a long way short of demands by the city's Shias, who are so disillusioned with civilian rule they have demanded the army take over in the province. Analysts say Pakistan's powerful military already has de facto control of security. Indeed, the spate of attacks has sparked unusually strident criticism of the army, with one popular television journalist saying the military was guilty of creating "private death squads" that had run amok. Also in the line of fire are Pakistan's politicians, who are accused of cynically entering into electoral alliances with mass murderers. "In the last election [the Pakistan People's party] took help from these people to get votes and this time the [Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz] group has already struck a deal for seat adjustment on 16 seats and struck a deal to win those seats," said Amin Shaheedi, deputy secretary general of Majlis Wahdat ul Muslimeen, a Shia party. The claim of a secret voting pact with terrorists is strongly denied by the party concerned, but many experts agree politicians dare not take on militants at a time when campaigning requires them to appear at public rallies. Amir Rana, director of the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, said the recent escalation in terrorist attacks was "an attempt to show they are powerful and can force the government to talk to them on their own terms". In his time Malik Ishaq, the head of LeJ, has been accused of being involved in hundreds of murders and the 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. In July 2011 he was released from prison after 14 years' detention on murder and terrorism charges that were ultimately dropped. Last month Ishaq was once again taken into custody, but apparently more for his own protection than out of any desire to put him behind bars. Ayesha Siddiqa, an expert on militant groups, said there was no chance of him being brought to justice. "In a couple of months someone will petition the Lahore high court saying there is no evidence to keep him in detention and they will simply let him go", she said.