Pakistan: Coal reserves

Editorial:

An Asian Development Bank report titled Climate Risk and Adaptation in the Electric Power sector concluded that climate change and modification of rainfall and temperature patterns can and does affect hydropower output through (i) surface water evaporation, (ii) reduced runoff due to drought, (iii) increased runoff due to flooding, and (iv)silting. A look at how climate change has impacted on Pakistan's hydroelectricity generation reveals the truth behind the study. There has been much mention in Pakistan that hydropower is the cheapest form of electricity generation. There is no doubt that this is a truism. However, two facts as they relate to Pakistan's energy sector need to be acknowledged. First and foremost, construction of mega dams has been subjected to considerable political controversy over time which partly explains why there have been no mega dam projects for decades. The controversy cannot be dismissed as political posturing for the simple reason that most dams are now accepted to have inbuilt negative ecological features as well as in terms of displacement of indigenous communities that account for multilaterals as well as several bilateral donors refusing to extend credit for their construction. Thus only those countries that have sufficient capital have been tempted to build mega dams and China's Three Gorges dam as well as Narmada Dam India's most controversial dam project, are an example. Pakistan as a case in point does not have the financial resources to build a large dam independent of foreign investment - investment that is not forthcoming at present also because of the state of the economy and the ongoing law and order problems. And secondly, the energy mix in Pakistan has dramatically changed from heavy reliance on indigenous sources of fuel, mainly water, to importing fuel for electricity generation. At present, generation of each fuel is as follows: (i) installed hydel capacity is 6463 MW (with Tarbela the largest contributor with 3478 MW) or 33 percent of total generation. However, supply fluctuates quite dramatically because of climate change notably due to floods or drought or, indeed, due to the annual closure of canals for maintenance; (ii) thermal accounts in Wapda system for 4811 MW, KESC thermal accounts for 1260 MW and IPPs 7070 MW, giving a total of 63 percent of total generation. The fuel used, furnace oil, has been witnessing a steady increase in its international price which accounts for electricity getting more expensive each quarter. There are, of course, other reasons as well including failure to implement reforms in the power sector targeted to contain the circular debt to sustainable levels as well as transmission and distribution losses but the cost of fuel is a major reason for rising cost of electricity in Pakistan; and (iii) nuclear energy accounts for 812 MW. The foregoing reveals that there is a need to support indigenous fuel sources to ensure that electricity price remains competitive in the region that would allow our manufacturing sector to compete internationally and provide the needed support to our balance of payment position (BoP). Thar coal reserves, as is well known, have the potential to meet not only our energy shortfall in the short term but also in the long term as well as ensure that the generation cost is much lower than what the country pays for thermal generation. Additionally, Thar coal is not politically controversial though it has become controversial amongst technical experts. Samar Mubarakmand has proposed underground coal gasification (UCG) which some other experts who challenge his credentials as a coal expert maintain that this process will contaminate ground water thereby negatively impacting on the people living in the area as well as have security implications given that Thar coal was an important area during the wars with India. The result has been a stalemate which one would hope the government does focus on with the objective of speedily resolving it given the continuing energy crisis in the country.