As the facts and figures of the recently released Economic Survey and the Federal Budget are examined closely, the size of economic distortions is highlighted. One of these is the fact that by March 2012, current expenditure of the federal government exceeded its target by a hefty Rs 317 billion. By end-June, this figure could only go up - a tradition that has been sustained since 2008. For 2012-13, the federal budget has projected a fiscal deficit of Rs 1,105 billion (assuming that the provinces will generate a surplus of Rs 80 billion). Doubts already exist about this target not being exceeded. One reason thereof is that the budget doesn't provide for repairs to the infrastructure damage arising out of the floods expected in 2012. On May 17, Chairman National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) had warned that as in 2010 and 2011, in 2012 too Pakistan will experience a "terrible" flood because of the ongoing unfavourable climate changes, heavy rains and consequent overflowing of the Swat and Kabul rivers and floods that could affect 29 million people in Charsadda, Peshawar, Nowshera, Muzzafargarh, Rajanpur, Laiyyah, Khushab, Muzzafarabad, Sargodha, and lower Sindh. Besides, massive land sliding was also expected in Gilgit-Baltistan. Floods are expected because of the heavy snowfall in the north of the country, and the strong possibility that this would cause both rains, and flooding of the rivers when snow starts melting on account of the climate-change. This trend is likely to continue for years in the Rajasthan, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan belt. As per latest research-based assessment by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, Pakistan is now among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries including Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and lower China. This was reason enough to create a regular expense head for flood relief and repair work in the budget. According to the Economic Survey, floods in 2010 and 2011 caused losses to the agriculture, transport and communication, energy, environment, forestry, water supply and sewerage sectors to the tune of Rs 324.5 billion but repair outlay amounted to Rs 239 billion, clearly indicating that the job wasn't done fully. The losses caused by floods in 2010 and 2011 are blamed for excessive borrowing by the federation. True; the losses did occur and had a huge impact since they also forced import of essential food items and drained Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves. But gross waste of resources on repair work was unfortunate. There were repeated disclosures about river banks not being raised adequately keeping in view the past experience of their overflowing, and repair work, especially lining of the banks exposed to river water with stones, was often ignored raising the fear that they could be eroded quickly by the expected powerful tidal flows. This scenario does not build high hopes about containing the losses expected from the flood. There are still places in Sindh where floodwater is stagnating over vast tracts of land even in villages and small towns. Parliamentarians elected by people from these areas don't visit these areas anymore. NDMA's warning called for long-term planning ie dredging of riverbeds, raising of the river banks, their strengthening on lasting bases, and building small dams to store rain and floodwater to assure its year-round availability for the agriculture sector. These steps could increase crop output and employment opportunities in the agriculture sector. It calls for selecting contractors based not merely on the lowest bid but on a satisfactory track record of finishing work on a timely basis as evidenced by their experience-based expertise and resources (requisite manpower and hardware). Advance planning of repair work and emergency strategies could spare millions the miseries they experienced in 2010 and 2011. But what appears more likely is a repeat of those tragedies because damages caused to canal networks haven't been repaired completely. City dwellers must prepare not just for sending relief supplies to the flood-affected areas but also for sheltering the flood-affected people in a manner that doesn't push them into committing petty crimes. Let us not forget that UN estimates of the 2010 floods losses highlighted the fact that that disaster was more devastating than the tsunami that hit South Asia in 2004, the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan, and the earthquake that hit Haiti in 2010.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Pakistan: Are we prepared for floods this year?
As the facts and figures of the recently released Economic Survey and the Federal Budget are examined closely, the size of economic distortions is highlighted. One of these is the fact that by March 2012, current expenditure of the federal government exceeded its target by a hefty Rs 317 billion. By end-June, this figure could only go up - a tradition that has been sustained since 2008. For 2012-13, the federal budget has projected a fiscal deficit of Rs 1,105 billion (assuming that the provinces will generate a surplus of Rs 80 billion). Doubts already exist about this target not being exceeded. One reason thereof is that the budget doesn't provide for repairs to the infrastructure damage arising out of the floods expected in 2012. On May 17, Chairman National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) had warned that as in 2010 and 2011, in 2012 too Pakistan will experience a "terrible" flood because of the ongoing unfavourable climate changes, heavy rains and consequent overflowing of the Swat and Kabul rivers and floods that could affect 29 million people in Charsadda, Peshawar, Nowshera, Muzzafargarh, Rajanpur, Laiyyah, Khushab, Muzzafarabad, Sargodha, and lower Sindh. Besides, massive land sliding was also expected in Gilgit-Baltistan. Floods are expected because of the heavy snowfall in the north of the country, and the strong possibility that this would cause both rains, and flooding of the rivers when snow starts melting on account of the climate-change. This trend is likely to continue for years in the Rajasthan, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan belt. As per latest research-based assessment by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, Pakistan is now among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries including Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and lower China. This was reason enough to create a regular expense head for flood relief and repair work in the budget. According to the Economic Survey, floods in 2010 and 2011 caused losses to the agriculture, transport and communication, energy, environment, forestry, water supply and sewerage sectors to the tune of Rs 324.5 billion but repair outlay amounted to Rs 239 billion, clearly indicating that the job wasn't done fully. The losses caused by floods in 2010 and 2011 are blamed for excessive borrowing by the federation. True; the losses did occur and had a huge impact since they also forced import of essential food items and drained Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves. But gross waste of resources on repair work was unfortunate. There were repeated disclosures about river banks not being raised adequately keeping in view the past experience of their overflowing, and repair work, especially lining of the banks exposed to river water with stones, was often ignored raising the fear that they could be eroded quickly by the expected powerful tidal flows. This scenario does not build high hopes about containing the losses expected from the flood. There are still places in Sindh where floodwater is stagnating over vast tracts of land even in villages and small towns. Parliamentarians elected by people from these areas don't visit these areas anymore. NDMA's warning called for long-term planning ie dredging of riverbeds, raising of the river banks, their strengthening on lasting bases, and building small dams to store rain and floodwater to assure its year-round availability for the agriculture sector. These steps could increase crop output and employment opportunities in the agriculture sector. It calls for selecting contractors based not merely on the lowest bid but on a satisfactory track record of finishing work on a timely basis as evidenced by their experience-based expertise and resources (requisite manpower and hardware). Advance planning of repair work and emergency strategies could spare millions the miseries they experienced in 2010 and 2011. But what appears more likely is a repeat of those tragedies because damages caused to canal networks haven't been repaired completely. City dwellers must prepare not just for sending relief supplies to the flood-affected areas but also for sheltering the flood-affected people in a manner that doesn't push them into committing petty crimes. Let us not forget that UN estimates of the 2010 floods losses highlighted the fact that that disaster was more devastating than the tsunami that hit South Asia in 2004, the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan, and the earthquake that hit Haiti in 2010.
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