Afghanistan:A Visit Well Timed to Future Uncertainties in Afghanistan

By ALISSA J. RUBIN

The moment that President Obama chose to visit Afghanistan for the first time in 17 months was a rare chance for him to make the most of a brief window when relations between the two governments are improving after months of crisis, and when the likely fallout of the coming NATO withdrawal is still months away. In the background, however, lurk a host of concerns about how things could go once the bulk of American troops leave and the pipeline of foreign aid slows to a trickle, which is expected to happen by the end of 2014. Both will increase the country’s already deep sense of precariousness. And there is concern, too, about whether what once were cornerstone American goals in Afghanistan — establishing reliable security forces, hobbling the insurgency, curbing endemic corruption, securing enduring rights for women and minorities — are now unrealistic given the looming deadline. “None of the tensions between the United States and the Karzai government have gone away,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a strategic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, in an essay published Tuesday on the center’s Web site. “The broader problems with Afghan governance and corruption are not diminishing. Progress in creating effective Afghan forces is increasingly questionable, the insurgents are clearly committed to going on with the fight, and relations with Pakistan seem to take two steps backward for every apparent step forward.” Mr. Cordesman continued, “As for American domestic politics, there seems to be growing, tacit, bipartisan agreement to drift toward an exit strategy without really admitting it.” Even now, months before any substantial drawdown, there are growing concerns about whether the Haqqani militant network, fresh off a blitz of attacks that paralyzed the capital for a day last month, poses a growing long-term threat. And mainstream Taliban leaders have yet to embrace talks, seemingly willing to bet that they can secure both influence and territory on their own terms. The American military drawdown is scheduled to come as Afghanistan turns to electing a new president, compounding fears that there will not be a peaceful transition of power. In its absence, there could be “a political meltdown,” wrote Haroun Mir, the director of Afghanistan’s Center for Research and Policy Studies, in a recent Op-Ed article in The New York Times. On at least one front, however, the trip communicated something of vital importance to the Afghans: reassurance that the United States is not in an all-out scramble to get away. Trust has been in short supply between the countries this year, reeling from crises including the burning of Korans at Bagram Air Base in February and the murder of 16 men, women and children purportedly by an American sergeant in southern Afghanistan in March. Meanwhile, the number of killings of Westerners by rogue Afghan security forces and Taliban infiltrators is rising sharply, now accounting for 20 percent of all NATO casualties this year. So it was not a minor point for the Afghans that Mr. Obama came here to celebrate the completion of a 10-year Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two countries, which guaranteed America’s continued economic and development aid as well as the promise of a future security arrangement. “His trip shows that the United States will stay in the region and will not repeat the mistake that the Americans made after communist regime was toppled in Afghanistan,” said Mirdad Nejrab, the chairman of the Afghan Parliament’s Internal Security Committee. “It is a good answer to our neighbors and regional countries, which thought that the Americans were leaving the region.” The moment was one when President Hamid Karzai, often a harsh critic of the United States, was feeling generous, having reached three agreements with the Americans that he could present to his country as the re-emergence of a sovereign Afghanistan. The two other deals recently signed by the countries gave the Afghan government authority over detentions and transferred primary authority over special operations raids, including the night raids that have outraged both Mr. Karzai and the Afghan public. “It’s a very good time for him to come here, there’s not too much controversial news right now and he can project some level of stability and smoothness in the relations,” said Waheed Omar, a former spokesman for Mr. Karzai, adding that the visit allows Mr. Obama to go to the May 20 NATO meeting in Chicago on Afghanistan in a strong position. That narrative could be far harder to sustain six months from now as 23,000 American troops withdraw. The jury is out on whether Afghan forces will be able stave off the Taliban, keep warlords and their militias under control and play a neutral role as political forces struggle for power in the next election.