BY:S P Seth
Daily Times
If the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is Pakistan’s answer to the Arab Spring, it does not quite resonate. The former cricket celebrity and playboy has reinvented himself as a politician aiming to be the country’s prime minister. And if recent popular rallies addressed by him in Pakistan’s major cities of Lahore and Karachi are any indication, he is probably the most popular politician in the country at the present time. But that does not necessarily translate into electoral victory because he lacks the experience and skills of working the feudal, tribal and industrial network that delivers block votes. Precisely because of this, he does not have the access to money politics that is very handy at the time of the elections.
But he has one advantage, which is that he is personally not tainted by corruption. That is why his campaign to rid the country of corruption, so entrenched in Pakistan, creates such enthusiasm among the young and the old in the country. His cricket legend is a hit with the youth of the country, even though they might have been too young to watch his team’s 1992 World Cup victory against England played in Australia. This seems even more spectacular against the backdrop of match-fixing scandals that have brought considerable disrepute to Pakistan’s cricket. Therefore, among the youth attracted to his rallies, there is a mystery and magnetism about this new political star on the country’s horizon. However, the captaincy of a cricket team is not the same as running a country beset with all sorts of problems that do not need enumeration.
Although Imran is clean, his politics is not so straightforward. A man of his background living in both Islamic and western cultures, and now leaning towards religious conservatism, is a contradiction. Such metamorphism can only be described as political opportunism. His sympathies are more with the religious right, earning him, in some quarters, the title of ‘Taliban Khan’. He believes that the country’s militants can be won over through talks. He is pushing the popular anti-US line, advocates freeing Pakistan of US and western aid, and drawing closer to China, which is all fine. But he is sketchy on how all this will solve the country’s myriad problems. There is a certain political naivety about the man. There are no detailed policy prescriptions to take the country ahead. To take one important aspect: has he got a policy framework to conduct dialogue with the Taliban? How will they be accommodated? Will ‘Prime Minister’ Imran Khan agree to run the country on the Taliban’s interpretation of Islam? There is no clarity about the path Pakistan will tread under him.
Then there is the elephant in the room: Pakistan’s military. Pakistan’s generals are unhappy, rather furious, with the present government. And they are not enamoured of Nawaz Sharif either. Nawaz sought to sack Musharraf as army chief when he was prime minister. That resulted in his being exiled to Saudi Arabia, and the beginning of Musharraf’s long dictatorship. Since then, he has not been the army’s preferred candidate.
But Imran Khan is reported to be the army’s preferred candidate. And he is said to be close to the former ISI chief, General Hamid Gul, whose Wahabiist leanings still continue to shape the ideology of many military officers. Gul reportedly played a prominent role in the emergence of the Taliban. If it is true that General Gul is Imran Khan’s political mentor, influencing his sympathies for religious extremism, it is not a good omen for Pakistan, which is already in a vortex of terrorist violence.
Imran Khan’s popularity at home is making him be noticed abroad. In an interview with Amanda Hodge of The Australian in his palatial mountain top house in Islamabad, he catalogued Pakistan’s serious problems. He said, “For the first time people are scared that the country might not survive,” and added, “Almost half of all Pakistanis live below the poverty line and 75 percent live on $ 2 or less a day. There is unprecedented inflation, lawlessness, unemployment, gas shortages. There are target killings in Karachi and Balochistan, all along the tribal belt there’s an insurgency and a total collapse of state institutions. Corruption has never been higher...”
He believes this is what is driving people toward him as the saviour of Pakistan. He told Bob Doherty of the Sydney Morning Herald, “...This is a movement. It is the sort of soft revolution that no one yet is believing, even when they saw a little of it at the rallies. In the homes there is a revolution going on. Father has belonged to one party, but his wife and children are all coming to Tehreek-e-Insaf. It is the most incredible thing.”
And how will Imran Khan deal with Pakistan’s myriad problems? He is big on eradicating corruption. No one will quibble with him on this. But he has no tangible plan for that. And how will he improve national finances to improve people’s living conditions? His answer: “If the people trust you [as he assumes they trust him], they will give you money. If they know that their money will not disappear because of corruption, if they know the leadership themselves give taxes, people will pay taxes...” And his credentials for raising money: “Here, I am someone who raises the most donations in Pakistan. I run the biggest charitable institute. The people will give.” But one cannot run a country like a charitable institute.
In tune with the national mood against the US, he will refuse any aid from that country. And he will not allow them to carry on drone attacks on and from Pakistani territory. That is fair enough. But Pakistan, particularly its military, has been dependent on US aid for many years, nearly $ 20 billion in the past 10 years alone. With his predilection for closer relations with China, he might look to that country to replace the US as an aid donor and more. But that might create a new set of problems. No country is altruistic in the conduct of its national affairs, and China will be no exception.
Khan makes his pronouncements as self-evident truths requiring no recommendation. Hence, he expects to be the country’s next prime minister. Whether he will win the elections, which might not be far away now that the Supreme Court might give its verdict against Prime Minister Gilani, is debatable. But he is likely to emerge as a major player on Pakistan’s political scene.
One thing that will keep popping up from time to time is the contradiction in Imran Khan’s personal life, which will increasingly become public as he gets closer to the top office. That is: his increasing reliance on Islamic politics while straddling both sides of the cultural divide. Amanda Hodge puts it cryptically in her article in The Australian. She writes: “Despite his best efforts, his previous reputation [as a playboy] has not forsaken him. Rumours abound of Khan — still slick from a home gym workout — greeting one female [western] journalist in only a pair of brief running shorts, and of conducting an interview with another in his bedroom.” She adds, “The philandering reputation continues to dog Khan — and has led some to call into question his attitude towards women.”
Be that as it may, Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf is no revolution — soft or otherwise.
The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney
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