Friday, October 21, 2011

Lessons from Libya: What lies ahead for Arab uprisings?



After a grueling and eight-month bloody battle that resulted in the death of Muammar Qaddafi on Thursday, Libyans face a host of challenges as they begin to build their country.

Qaddafi became the first leader of a nation belonging to the Arab Spring fraternity to die at the hands of his own people. There were no deals of immunity and no long-winded trials that may have exposed some ugly truths, much to the collective sigh of relief of western nations that once supported Qaddafi.

Pundits have been scurrying since his death to list the challenges the new rulers of the National Transitional Council face but arguably, their greatest priority will be to secure law and order.

The very thing that secured Libyans their victory ─ arms ─ could pose the greatest challenge for the NTC. Fighters in Misrata, Tripoli, Benghazi and now Sirte each claim responsibility for “freeing Libya”, and feel a sense of entitlement to the spoils of war – be that roles in the new government or continuing to play the role of law enforcement. Herein lies the danger as the past few weeks have shown that revenge attacks have been common and despite NTC’s attempts to de-weaponize its fighters, it has not wielded in the results they hoped for. These fears have been expressed by various human rights organizations too.

However, for protestors in other Arab nations witnessing bloody uprisings, the Libyan victory – unique because its fighters were armed and it had international military intervention ─ will provide a great deal of succor, namely that victory is possible.

For the Syrian opposition, this is an opportunity to band together and begin a concerted effort to push for international intervention against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This is ultimately what the NTC did when months ago it began to canvas for international support that saw the enforcement of no-fly zones in Libya, shipment of arms and ultimately recognition of their legitimacy as the new leaders.

For Yemenis determined to put to end the 33 years of rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the challenges lie in remaining a peaceful protest in the face of gross brutality. Yemen is already a heavily weaponized and tribal society with factions already pitted against one another which have served Saleh well as he’s used this, along with the al-Qaeda threat, to perpetuate his own rule. Yemenis want to stay committed to peaceful resistance, as exemplified by its courageous Nobel Peace Prize winner Tawwakul Karman, but that runs the risk of changing if and when Yemenis turn to the Libyan model to bring about change.

The year will undoubtedly be remembered for the Arab Spring and the fate its leaders met: Tunisia’s President Zine ElAbedine Ben Ali went into self-exile in Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak Ali faces trial on charges of corruption and Qaddafi has been killed. The victors remain the same: the people who called for, and achieved, democracy. How the end plays out for other Arab nations remains to be seen but it is safe (and tragic) to assume two things: remaining leaders won’t go quietly and democracy is no longer a pipe dream, but a reality just waiting to give birth.

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