The six-month long uprising in Libya seems to be concluding in the favour of the rebels who fought against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year rule under the umbrella of NATO air power. Major parts of Tripoli, Libya’s capital city, are now under the control of the rebels. Two sons of Gaddafi are under arrest while Gaddafi’s whereabouts are unknown so far. The western leaders and the US are calling for Gaddafi to quit.
It looks like the long chapter of Gaddafi’s rule has finally come to an end and there are rumours that he has fled to Algeria or might be planning to go south where his tribe lives. Nevertheless, it is clear that
Gaddafi’s days in power are now numbered and maybe in this world too. There are lots of speculations in the international media about the future of Libya. Who is going to rule the oil and gas-rich country after Gaddafi? This might be the beginning of a new round of conflict. Amongst the opposition forces there is the National Liberation Army in eastern Libya under the National Transitional Council (NTC) based in Benghazi, which is trying to break through towns still controlled by Gaddafi’s supporters on the route to the capital Tripoli. The NTC and its army have been labelled western-sponsored. There is also the ‘western’ army advancing on and entering Tripoli from the west, south and the sea. These two forces could be potential rivals in a faction-ridden opposition when it comes to power in a post-Gaddafi Libya.
In case a civil war breaks out in post-Gaddafi Libya, the whole enterprise will come under question. The supporters and participants of NATO action in Libya will have to bear their share of responsibility for the following chaos. The stakes of Britain and France are huge in Libya while the US has less to lose as it has maintained a low posture throughout the rebellion and NATO operation in the country. Although British Prime Minister David Cameron has put forward the name of Mustafa Abdul Jalil as the chairman of the new Libyan Authority, the situation is uncertain and it remains to be seen who will emerge on top. The situation in Libya is highly fluid and unstable. There might be a political backlash against the Western interventionists once the dust settles, as happened in Iraq.
The United Nations Security Council resolution that led to an intervention in Libya needs reassessment. According to the critics of the west and the US, the so-called ‘humanitarian’ intervention in Libyan internal affairs looks disconcertingly like an old style imperialist intervention. The solution to the crisis in Libya could have been a political settlement, as the South African proposal envisaged, but the military option was preferred by the opposition and their Western backers. The stakes in Libya are very high. It is one of the few self-sufficient countries in Africa and its oil reserves are proven to be the tenth largest in the world. Gaddafi has been a thorn in the eye of the imperialists throughout his long rule. The uprising in Libya may have been inspired by the Arab Spring, which has overturned governments in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt. However, the way it was supported from outside has disregarded the country’s sovereignty, which is controversial in international law. After Libya, who knows whether similar attacks are not in the offing on Syria and Iran. That points to new troubles in the world
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