Transfer of Security Responsibilities to Afghan Forces

March 21 marks the advent of the New Year 1390 according to the solar calendar which is used in Afghanistan. The upcoming year, in all likelihood, will be a different year for Afghanistan. It will be a defining period in the political life of the country with an array of important developments set to take place. The long-awaited transfer of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces is scheduled to begin on the first day of the year, March 21st. Parallel to this transition, the drawdown of international military forces under the command of NATO will begin in July although it has become clear by now that the withdrawals of foreign forces will be very limited and only token numbers of soldiers will be initially evacuated. The war against the Taliban and other militant groups waged by Afghan and international forces is also going to enter into a decisive phase in the upcoming year. The U.S., NATO and Afghan National Army commanders in charge of the war are already warning that this year will be a particularly bloody year with the military campaign set to be beefed up by both sides of the war.

The start of the process of so-called Afghanization of security responsibilities is good news for Afghanistan. According to David Petraeus, the top American and NATO commander in the country, the transfer is going to be a gradual process with more relatively calm areas first handed over to Afghan forces. The hand-over of security provisions will be based on a map of various regions with varying security parameters and the Afghan government and international forces plan to complete the process by the end of 2014. The Afghan National Army has so far been on a fairly satisfactory progress track and is by any standard, able to provide security to those areas and regions where militant activity is limited or non-existent. Therefore, the security transition is indeed going to be smooth over the short-term but the real test for the National Army comes when they have to face the enemies in their areas of activities. Here I take a look as the Afghan National Army and its preparedness over the long-term to meet the challenge of security provision.

There have been concerns regarding the level of readiness of Afghan National Army to be effective providers of security and a good match for the Taliban and other militant groups. The Afghan National Army now stands at 160,000 soldiers and is planned to reach 171,000 by the end of 2011. It enjoys relatively positive image among the people in the country in general and the trust of people reposed in it have been growing in recent years. Corruption has not been a major problem within the Afghan National Army but formidable problems lie in the way of its development. Shortage of equipments and supplies, desertion rates, leadership deficit and most important, the long-term commitment of international community to its further expansion are the major concerns. The desertion rates were once very high but with the salary levels increased and internal discipline strengthened in recent years it has sharply come down but still remains a serious problem as admitted by Afghan and foreign commanders and trainers. The sudden increase in the number of new recruits in recent years has faced the Afghan National Army with new sets of challenges. The number of foreign trainers required to train new cadres is not keeping up with growing numbers of new recruits coming in. The Afghan and foreign trainers have been successful in building a huge corpus of motivated and ready-to-fight soldiers but what has been lacking are leaders who can act not only as simple foot soldiers but also able to serve as commanders of various kandaks and brigades. The corpus of military leaders and commanders that served during the Communist era and earlier is exhausted by now. The talent to replace them has been scarce among the new recruits who could largely fail to show that they are able to quickly rise through the ranks and serve as leader-commanders of their military units.

One persisting problem in Afghan National Army has been the shortage of supplies and military equipments and other logistical problems in some areas that have faced the preparation of forces with challenges. President Obama has many a time reaffirmed his unwavering support to building a strong and capable Afghan National Army and the U.S. government has so far spent billions of dollars on the Afghan National Army; but still certain logistical problems remain in place that is expected to be sorted out as the deadline of 2014 draws closer.

Many foreign military experts have pointed out weak civilian oversight on the Afghan National Army as one of the more important challenges that need to be addressed. However, they are right in pointing out that in the absence of international forces’ support, this problem can lead to severe disruption in the ranks and activities of the army. This appears to be a structural problem and the civilian authorities in the Ministry of Defense need to address the problem in the run-up to the 2014 deadline.

The most important concern regarding the long-term viability of Afghan National Army is the pressing need to maintain large-scale international commitment to the army and its future expansions. The Afghan National Army requires a massive annual budget reaching billions of dollars each year in order to remain a strong force that can provide security to the country against Taliban and other militant groups. In order to meet the challenge of militancy in the country, the size of the army must be increased. Providing this large amount of funds will not be possible without long-term and firm commitment of international community to the Afghan National Army and its expansion. It is up to the government of Afghanistan and the leaders to cultivate their foreign partners and make them long-term stake-holders in our National Army.