Afghan peace talks not likely advancing

Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban aren't likely to advance until the United States and NATO forces gain an advantage on the battlefield, several experts on the region say.

While Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants to advance the reconciliation goals of his recently named High Peace Council, those familiar with diplomatic efforts say the current military standoff makes any peace deal difficult.

Talks between Afghan government and Taliban officials have been ongoing for months, but experts say that doesn't mean they're advancing.

"We really haven't seen anything concrete coming out of those negotiations," says Lisa Curtis, senior research fellow on South Asia at the Heritage Foundation. As the Taliban makes gains in southern Afghanistan, she says, "we would be in a weaker position at this particular point in time."The White House reiterated its support for peace talks Wednesday, as long as the Taliban renounces terrorism, cuts ties with al-Qaeda and supports the fledgling Afghan constitution, including minority and women's rights.

"This is something that has to be Afghan-led, and we've supported for quite some time," said press secretary Robert Gibbs.

Bruce Riedel, a Brookings Institution scholar who chaired an interagency review of Afghanistan and Pakistan policy for the White House last year, says the Taliban should be forced to do at least one more thing: point the way to the mastermind of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

"They know where Osama bin Laden is," he says. "That ought to be our bottom line with them."

Without major concessions by the Taliban, Riedel says, Karzai risks the support of the Afghan people, many of whom fear the strict Islamic regime's return.

If the talks are in the preliminary stage, as most experts believe, then the time is ripe for U.S. and NATO forces to advance in southern Afghanistan, while continuing to train government troops and police to take over security operations. That would weaken the Taliban's negotiating position, they say.

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday the military offensive led by Gen. David Petraeus is intended to "create the conditions for those who, for one reason or another, are opposing the Afghan government to switch sides."

"All the while, we're continuing to press forward with a very aggressive counterinsurgency campaign," says Jeffrey Dressler, a research analyst at the Institute for the Study of War who specializes in southern Afghanistan. "I don't think anyone's talking about stopping that as we continue these talks."

The Taliban might have more reason to negotiate now, before their position on the ground is weakened by the coalition's offensive in Helmand province and Kandahar, experts say. The Obama administration's plan to begin withdrawing combat forces next July helps the Taliban, which has demanded the withdrawal of all foreign forces, some say.

"From the Taliban perspective, I can see why they want to talk right now," says Stephanie Sanok, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Despite the Obama administration's public hands-off approach, she says, it's not likely to remain that way.

"I can't imagine the U.S. State Department taking a complete back seat to these negotiations," Sanok says.