Another chapter of terrorism closed

Editorial: Daily Times

Baitullah Mehsud, the fearsome top leader of the self-styled Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, is reportedly dead, killed in last Tuesday’s Predator strike. Earlier reports had suggested that the attack had claimed his wife. There is need for further confirmation but if the report is correct then the hit is a big positive for the ongoing counterinsurgency and terrorism operations. Consider.

Mehsud had emerged as the biggest menace for Pakistan attacking soft and hard targets in the tribal areas as well as across Pakistan. He had become the main plank between Al Qaeda and the several sectarian and terrorist groups within Pakistan drawing cadres from all of them and forging them into a well-knit terrorist force. He considered himself safe in the craggy mountain redoubts of South Waziristan and so far all attempts to get to him through ground extraction operations had failed. In the final analysis, he had become the centre of gravity which needed to be hit because he managed from that central position to expand the zone of irregular war, a combination of insurgency and terrorism, and forced the security forces to fight several small wars on the periphery.

His death therefore sends a clear signal to the Taliban, and whoever his successor might be, that the heat and din of war can reach their headquarters. Also, that no matter how rough and difficult the terrain, superior technology will be used to blunt the terrorists’ advantage. Wherever it is difficult to execute ground operations, air power can be used to take out even mobile targets.

The other setback would be the need for the Taliban to find someone to replace Mehsud. That they will be able to do but it will take time and it will be some time before that person will be able to get a handle on things. Going by reports of how Mehsud dealt with his second-string leaders, we know that he never allowed any of his lieutenants to grow too big. Qari Hussain, who trained and prepared suicide bombers for the TTP, had to mend fences with Mehsud when the Qari overstepped his brief and attacked the house of Khyber Agency’s political agent in Tank. Mehsud knew that in the game that he was playing, he could not afford to let anyone grow beyond a certain point. But now that he is reported dead, this could prove a problem for his successor. In fact, this could even lead to a battle for succession and a splintering of TTP. If the TTP falls apart into various factions, its ability to mount coordinated attacks could suffer. That would make it easier for the security forces to pre-empt future insurgent and terrorist attacks.

Having said this, however, we should not consider this as the beginning of the end of this menace. There is every possibility that the Taliban and their sleeper cells will mount a string of attacks across Pakistan to avenge Mehsud’s killing. So, before it begins to get better, it could get worse. The government should be alive to this fact. Secondly, Mehsud became big in the way that he did because Al Qaeda needed to prop up someone to act as go-between itself and the several extremist groups. With Mehsud gone, Al Qaeda will be looking for the right person to replace him and is very likely to throw its weight and resources behind that person. Similarly, given that Mehsud did get taken out by a drone despite much precaution, the Taliban are likely to become more cautious in avoiding a similar fate for their next leader.

Nonetheless, the operation has notched a big success and it must be looked at as such. It also disproves the thesis in Pakistan that Mehsud was operating at the behest of a US-India combine because those countries want to dismember Pakistan. If anything, it now points to greater intelligence and military cooperation between Pakistan and the US which is the only way the two sides can fight this war. Also, Pakistan had long insisted that it cannot take care of groups that are sustaining the insurgency in Afghanistan because it has to deal with the menace of Mehsud. Islamabad will now have to revisit that argument. With elections coming up in Afghanistan, the US would want Pakistan to help it maintain security in Afghanistan by ensuring, as far as Pakistan can, that groups operating from the Pakistani soil are neutralised.