Pakistan identified as biggest foreign policy test

Pakistani soldiers target militant positions in the tribal region, an increasing threat to the country's new and fragile democracy. Washington's newly appointed special envoy is due to arrive in Islamabad today, as Barack Obama's administration tackles what may turn out to be its greatest foreign policy challenge: a nuclear-armed country hurtling towards chaos.According to Obama's aides, Pakistan is the nation that really "scares" him. The country is threatened by a growing Islamist insurgency, economic collapse and a crisis of governance as it struggles to establish democratic rule. The Obama administration believes Pakistan is key to its objectives of pacifying Afghanistan and going after al-Qaida and has appointed a pugnacious diplomatic troubleshooter, Richard Holbrooke, as a special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan."We often call this situation Afpak," said Holbrooke at a conference in Munich yesterday, before flying to Islamabad. "There will be more focus on Pakistan," he said. "A new and fragile democracy has emerged ... but the situation in Pakistan requires attention and sympathy."Leaks of a US military review, conducted under David Petraeus, the American general in charge of the region, say he has concluded that Pakistan, not Iraq, Afghanistan or Iran, is the most urgent foreign policy issue facing Obama.Pakistan is al-Qaida's headquarters, while its tribal territory, which runs along the Afghan border, is used by the Taliban to launch attacks against coalition forces in Afghanistan. Some Pakistani extremists who previously focused on Afghanistan, have now turned inwards, spawning a vicious Pakistani Taliban movement which challenges the writ of the state. Obama warned in a television interview this month that the spillover of the war in Afghanistan risks "destabilising neighbouring Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons".The security situation in Pakistan seems to deteriorate daily. Last week's headlines, for instance, included: a bombing of a religious procession in the central town of Dera Ghazi Khan, which claimed at least 27 lives; government helicopter gunship attacks that killed 52 militants in the Khyber area of the tribal region; the kidnapping of a senior UN official by gunmen; and the beheading of a Polish engineer who was abducted five months ago. A videotape of the execution was released last night by his captors.
A year ago democracy was restored after eight years of military rule but many believe the government is in a state of paralysis, as an unwieldy coalition and a cabinet of about 70 ministers jockey for position - ever wary of the army, which has ruled Pakistan for most of its existence. Government decision-making is concentrated in the hands of President Asif Zardari, creating a log-jam, critics say."Yes, we have a million problems. We had lots of inherited issues and perhaps a slowness to get the government off the ground," said Farahnaz Ispahani, a member of parliament for the Pakistan People's party, which leads the coalition. "But I do feel that we're slowly and gradually moving towards better governance."However, the government has been unable to forge a political consensus on the fight against terrorism, with opinion divided between political parties, who favour military action against the extremists and those who want to negotiate, even within the ruling coalition.As a result, no clear direction has been given to the army. In tandem with the security crisis, the economy, which was saved from bankruptcy late last year by an IMF loan, is plagued by inflation and a collapse in economic activity."The civilian leadership is weak and fearful of the inevitable in Pakistan, that it oversteps the mark and runs the risk of being removed [by the army]," said Rashed Rahman, a political analyst based in Lahore. "It's a non-functional government."The army has repeatedly shown that it will not bow to civilians on national security, refusing a government order last year, for instance, to place the top spy agency, the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, under government control.Armed extremists appear to be able to spread unchecked, with a Taliban-style mini-state now existing 100 miles from Islamabad, in Swat valley. Many Pakistanis are asking whether the country's armed forces are unable or unwilling to take on the jihadists, who are rapidly pushing their influence out from their base in the tribal area."We always say that we have one of the most powerful armies, yet how come we cannot even cut off the supply routes [for the militants] in Swat?" said Bushra Gohar, a member of parliament for the Awami National party, part of the ruling coalition. "We are patronising terror. The training camps and safe havens are still there. This has to stop."The top priority for Washington will be getting Pakistan to take more concerted military action in the tribal territory. The Obama administration is promising more non-military aid, with a plan to triple social and economic assistance to $1.5bn a year.Western diplomats believe the military's top brass, including army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and head of the ISI, Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, are committed to fighting the extremists, but that there are problems further down the ranks.The deep confusion in Pakistan also envelops the role of the US and other western powers, who many believe are secretly supporting the extremists, in order to destabilise Pakistan. And while most Pakistanis do not agree with the Taliban's methods, their message of enforcing Islam resonates.Mosharraf Zaidi, a columnist for The News, a Pakistani daily, said: "Nobody knows what to believe. There is no clarity in Pakistan about who's behind the extremists. For one group of people it's Raw [the Indian intelligence agency], for another group of people it's the CIA, for another group of people it's the ISI. In that scenario, the idea that there's political will in Pakistan to solve this is absurd. You can't have political will when you don't even know who the enemy is."