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Pakistan: Climate Change, Food, and Geopolitics

By Osama Rizvi

The country’s vulnerability to natural disasters and adverse effects on labor productivity will add to its existing challenges and concerns.

A recent report by the Office of National Intelligence (U.S.) has identified the 11 countries most vulnerable to sociopolitical and geopolitical instability due to climate change – and Pakistan is one of them.

According to different estimates, climate change could cost Pakistan a staggering $3.8 billion annually. Given the importance of agriculture in Pakistan – it contributes 22 percent of its GDP and provides employment for almost 39 percent of its workforce – along with soaring food price inflation, exacerbating climate change can jeopardize its energy, food and national security.

Drawing attention to the asymmetrical effects of climate change on the Global South in his book “The Divide: A Brief Guide to Global Inequality and its Solutions,” economic anthropologist Jason Hickel points out that 83 percent of deaths related to climate change happened in countries with the lowest carbon emissions, whereas out of 588 billion tons of carbon emissions (figures until 2017), 70 percent came from industrial economies. Pakistan is illustrative of this.

The future holds some tough choices for the country. On the one hand, the need to shift to cleaner sources of energy is necessary and extraordinarily important. On the other, as I have argued elsewhere, the inherent limitations of these systems make such a shift challenging, to say the least.

Reality jeers at the ideal. More than 40 million of Pakistan’s population lack electricity and more than 50 percent are deprived of “clean cooking facilities.” Unemployment is worrisome as one out of 10 people in Pakistan is unemployed with a total rate of around 4.65 percent in 2020. Pakistan’s per capita income was $1,465 in 2020. Recently, the country’s total liabilities reached $283 billion (2021), the highest ever recorded. Finally, a reality check: fossil fuels still account for 64 percent of Pakistan’s energy mix with renewables providing a paltry 4 percent. 

The exacerbating climate situation underscores the need for Pakistan to pay urgent attention to several issues. One such issue is that of food. Recently, the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index touched 134.4, the highest since 2011. People in Pakistan spend almost 39 percent of their income on food and 24 percent on other basic provisions such as rent, gas, and water. According to a 2017 estimate, around 68 percent of households receive inadequate nutrition. This recent rise in food prices will only exacerbate this situation as the Sensitive Price Index registered a 37 week high with an increase of 17.4 percent, while food is roughly 48 percent more costly than in 2018.

This rise in food prices, inter alia, has a direct correlation with social unrest and political instability. Research shows that between 2005 and 2011, food riots jumped 250 percent, triggering protests in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. The Arab Spring was also a result of rise in food prices.

This issue spills over to the geopolitical domain as well. It is instructive to note here that India is building a food corridor, called the India-Middle East Food Corridor, under the auspices of a wider India to Europe Arab-Mediterranean Corridor. According to recent study by the Singapore-based Institute of South Asia Studies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are providing billion dollar investments to help India create integration in the whole value chain from technologies to food production. There is already in place a platform, Agriota, which is assisting Indian farmers link up with companies in the UAE.

The food corridor is expected to create 200,000 jobs with more than 2 million Indian farmers as beneficiaries. The overall aim remains to build higher value added production that integrates farms to retail outlets. As pointed out above, given the extreme significance of agriculture in Pakistan’s economy and the threat to food security, which can easily trigger social unrest or become a geopolitical flashpoint, the need for Pakistan to work on a similar corridor is both obvious and logical.

While financial and administrative help by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to India seemingly violates its principle of identity, however, it makes perfect diplomatic and strategic sense. Pakistan has a palette of other options – Turkey, Qatar, China, and Russia, for example, with whom it has stable or friendly relations – to build a similar corridor. A food corridor with Russia and China could be especially beneficial to us in terms of volume, technological assistance, and knowledge transfer. Such an initiative could help Pakistan to be food secure.

Besides this dimension, there are steps to be taken on the domestic front too. There is a need to introduce congestion charges for vehicles entering busy areas. Improving the public transport system is also required. Tree plantations are good; making factories energy efficient is better. Brick kilns need to go. Climate change should be taught in schools.

Studies show a drastically negative impact on Pakistan’s crop yields as temperatures continue to rise. Pakistan’s vulnerability to disasters and the adverse effects on labor productivity will add to the already existing worries. As always, the suffering of the poor will be highly asymmetrical to that of the upper class.

Research says that the average temperature in Pakistan is already at such high levels that any further increase in consumption will adversely affect standards of living owing to the environmental consequences.

Finally, South Asia is expected to deal with 36 million “internal climate migrants” in the wake of climate crisis by 2050. This would increase the existing migrant/refugee burden on Pakistan.

There is a need to prioritize climate change. The issue goes beyond improving the air quality index and being able to enjoy al fresco dinners; it relates to social unrest, political instability, and geopolitical issues feeding into a country’s foreign policy, and diplomatic and economic prowess.

Tough Days Ahead for #Pakistan’s Ruling Party

By Umair Jamal

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s defeat in its traditional stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa does not bode well for its electoral prospects in other parts of the country.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has suffered a humiliating defeat in the first phase of elections to local bodies in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province. KP is a traditional stronghold of the PTI and its rout in the province has raised questions about the party’s electoral prospects in other parts of the country. Following his party’s defeat, Prime Minister Imran Khan claimed that wrong candidate selection was a major cause for the defeat. “From now on I will personally be overseeing PTI’s LG [local government] election strategy in 2nd phase of KP LG elections & LG elections across Pakistan,” he tweeted.

Khan has dissolved the party’s organizational structure and reorganized it to activate it at the grassroots level for the second phase of local body elections in KP and Punjab.

This was the first time since 2018 that the PTI fought an election without the support of the country’s security elite. The elections were relatively fair and the PTI’s defeat raises questions over the party’s ability to win against other political parties without the military’s support.

PTI has been accused of relying on the military leadership to manage its troubles in the past. From handling politics in Punjab to keeping a check on unruly and ambitious political allies, the party has long benefited from the army’s support.

However, Prime Minister Khan’s well-wishers within the national security establishment may not have any appetite left for convincing others around them that supporting his rule is a good idea. The party has failed to govern effectively and appears to have become a liability for its patrons in the military. It does seem that the generals are looking beyond the PTI.

In this regard, the recent controversy over the appointment of the director general Inter-Services Intelligence (DG-ISI) was perhaps an important trigger to the military’s realization that that it was time to open space for other political parties.

Without the military’s support, the prospects of the PTI winning the local government polls in Punjab and elsewhere are bleak. It is important to note here that the PTI has lost most of the by-elections in Punjab over the past three years to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). The recent cantonment board elections in Punjab also saw the ruling party lose to its main political foe in the province.

If the PTI loses to the PML-N in Punjab, which appears likely, it will find it hard to hold its flock together. Across the country, it will suffer internal revolts and divisions heading into general elections in 2023.

One of the reasons for the PTI’s defeat in KP was that many political heavyweights, who remain in the party, didn’t support it. Some of the provincial and national assembly members openly backed the opposition parties and undermined their own party’s candidates. This trend is reflective of the shifting priorities of the military leadership, which is not interested in intervening on behalf of the ruling party anymore – something that is being recognized by opportunistic politicians across the country. For instance, in Sindh, a National Assembly member of the PTI has called on the government to hold talks with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement leader Altaf Hussain, who remains banned from the country’s politics. PTI’s Punjab Minister for Prisons, Fayyaz-ul-Hassan Chohan recently visited Liaqat Bagh, the site of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, and directed authorities to complete its repair work, saying that she was a representative of all Pakistanis.

It appears that political leaders who were nudged by the military establishment to join the PTI during the last general election may jump ship in the coming days as the military retracts its support for the ruling party.

If the recent local government elections are any indication of what’s to come, then PTI’s electoral loss in KP is set to extend beyond its traditional stronghold.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/tough-days-ahead-for-pakistans-ruling-party/

#Pakistan - #PPP issues white paper on PTI Govt’s performance: Pakistan fourth most expensive country in the world & inflation is in double-digit

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has issued a white paper on the three-year performance of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government in comparison with the previous governments hereon government at the Sindh Assembly building at Karachi.

PPP-P’s Central Information Secretary Shazia Marri while holding a joint press conference along with Spokesperson of Sindh government Murtaza Wahah has said that PTI’s government came into power through chanting the slogan of “change” but it has brought destruction almost in every sector of the country and today we are presenting a white paper on the three-year performance of incumbent government and termed it as ” Tabdeli Nahi, Tabahi” (not change but destruction). Ms Marri said that it has been 40 months and 1232 days since the PTI government came into power but the government has caused destruction and havoc in every sector of the country and Imran Khan & his team have destroyed the economy of the country and blamed it is because of the wave of coronavirus while Pakistan had ranked fourth most expensive country in the world. She added that the current inflation rate of the country has reached at 11.5 percent and Pakistan is declared most expensive country in South Asia. PTI government while coming in the power fired thousands of people from their jobs and more than 6.6 million people are unemployed currently in Pakistan.

In the province of Sindh PPP has the government and the unemployment rate is 4% while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been ruled by ruling party PTI for nine years but there is the highest unemployment rate in the country which is about 10.3 percent. Every Pakistani has a debt of about Rs 2 lacs and circular debt has been reached at about ً2.3 trillion rupees. She informed that the country’s trade deficit has reached at 30.7 percent while 17 percent new taxes have been levied on milk, jewelery, electric vehicles, solar panels and other essential items in the mini budget while Imran Khan had falsely claimed that he would eradicate corruption in 19 days and terrorism and extremism in 90 days but corruption has not been eradicated from the country however Imran Khan is strengthening terrorism and extremism in the country.

Imran Khan himself is the biggest lawyer and supporter of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. She said that the condition of the health sector in the country is worst nowdays and health card is nothing only a drama to play with poor people sentiments and the prices of medicines have also been increased by five hundred percent. While talking on foreign funding case, she said that Imran Khan had organized events in the name of Shaukat Khanum Hospital in the different foreign countries and collected cheques from foreigners in the name of his political party PTI.

Imran Khan had vowed for a small cabinet but his cabinet is consist on more than 47 ministers. She said that PTI government has made a draft of National Security Policy which has not been brought in the parliament for the discussion and even didn’t take in confidence to all stackholders and opposition parties which is illegal act of the government and incapable government of PTI had created severe crisises of wheat and sugar in the country and today farmers are much worried and tense because of the shortage of urea fertilizer in the country. She added that PTI government’s members even did embezzlement of Rs 40 billion in coronavirus funds.

On this occasion, spokesperson of Sindh government, administrator Karachi Murtaza Wahab said that when Imran Khan had took over the power, at that time the value of dollar was approximately 121 in July 2018 and now it has been jumped to more than 190 rupees while the rate of sugar was Rs 55 per kg now it has touched near Rs 100 per kg. He added that PTI’s federal government exported 1.1 million tonnes of sugar with the approval of Prime Minister Imran Khan which led to the sugar crisis in the country andpetrol was sold at Rs 88 per liter in 2018 but now it is more than Rs 145 while external debts increased by 12billion dollars which will have to be borne by the poor masses.

https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/26001/