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#PandoraPapers - Pandora Papers: How will the revelations impact Pakistan's politics?

By Haroon Janjua

Several officials surrounding Prime Minister Imran Khan were named, but experts are skeptical of the possibility of a thorough investigation.

Several people surrounding Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, including ministers and family members, have been named in the Pandora Papers leaks.

The papers, which were shared by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), reveal that many of the country's powerful military generals, businessmen and media owners have transferred millions of dollars through offshore companies.

More than 700 prominent Pakistanis were named in the investigation, released on Sunday.

Khan himself, however, was not named in the papers. The prime minister came to power in 2018 after promising to end rampant corruption, and had earlier launched a relentless election campaign based on anti-corruption rhetoric.

Water Resources Minister Moonis Elahi and Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin were among the most prominent names included in the ICIJ report.

The leaks are based on more than 11.9 million secret files disclosed from 14 offshore financial services firms.

Reacting quickly to the leaks, Khan on Sunday said his government would "investigate all our citizens mentioned in the Pandora Papers [and] if any wrongdoing is established we will take appropriate action."

"I call on the international community to treat this grave injustice as similar to the climate change crisis. If unchecked, inequalities between rich & poor states will increase as poverty rises in the latter. This in turn will lead to a flood of economic migration from the poor to the rich states, causing further economic & social instability across the globe," Khan wrote on Twitter.

'Everyone will be thoroughly investigated'

Information and Broadcasting Minister Fawad Chaudhary told DW that "Khan has set up a high-level cell under the Prime Minister's Inspection Commission to investigate the people named in the Pandora Papers. Everyone involved will be thoroughly investigated and necessary action will be taken against the culprits."

He said the National Accountability Bureau, the Federal Board of Revenue and the Federal Investigation Agency would handle the probe. They will also look into the officials' adherence to the law under Article 62(1)(f) of the country's constitution — the article under which former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court in July 2017 in the Panama Papers case.

Opposition figures have also called on the Cabinet members and associates to resign and face the investigation.

"We are not seeing the same kind of reaction from Imran Khan as when he was part of the opposition and the Panama Papers came out," Shazia Marri, a lawmaker from the opposition's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), told DW. "There was no excitement this time around because some of the names are associated with Khan's Cabinet. Those involved should step down."

Skepticism about impact

Some analysts believe that the revelations brought by the investigation will not create have a substantial impact on the current political order. "I don't think there are major political consequences for Pakistani politics. This is mainly because Khan himself wasn't named in the report, and Khan came out very quickly with an emphatic statement vowing to conduct an investigation," Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, told DW.

"That said, any revelations of corruption within his party are a big deal, given that its main plank for its entire existence has revolved around anti-corruption," Kugelman said. "There won't be many implications for the present setup unless any concrete action is actually taken. If those from the Cabinet who are named in the Pandora Papers step down until their names are cleared, it will create problems for the government," Mehmal Sarfraz, a political analyst, told DW. Mehreen Zahra Malik, the Pakistan editor of the Saudi Arabia-based newspaper Arab News, echoed those comments. "I don't see any serious implications or threats to the Khan government or Cabinet after the leaks. This is no crisis for the government. Not even close," Malik told DW. "At most, this could give Khan an excuse to get rid of Moonis Elahi. Khan really never liked him, but Elahi is still politically very important for him as a strong electable."

Politicians 'not taking it seriously'

Khan has announced investigations into the massive leaks, which cast negative light on politicians who present themselves as clean.

"Announcing an investigation on Twitter and forming a commission under the government seems only to be a formality. He [Khan] is not known for living up to his previous promises, and his ministers are doing political bashing on Twitter, against other names appearing in the leaks. They are not taking it seriously enough," said opposition lawmaker Marri.

Kugelman believes that Khan will enthusiastically pursue the investigation.

"One can accuse Khan of taking U-turns on policy, but he has been unflinchingly consistent in his stand on corruption," he said. "He will want to ensure that there is a credible investigation of these allegations. It's important for domestic politics in Pakistan, and especially with the next scheduled election less than two years away."

Political analyst Sarfraz believes that few of the people named will see repercussions for the leaks. "Offshore companies, as long as they're declared under the law, are not illegal. Only those who didn't declare them may face some problems," she said. Malik also believes that Khan's government will not take an investigation seriously. "In Pakistan we know that the best way to postpone action or defer an issue is to create the illusion of accountability by announcing a high-level commission. And this isn't the first commission announced by this government," she said.

"Consider the fact that it's just one day after the leaks and already the media has lost interest in the story," she said. "The Panama Papers received sustained media attention in Pakistan, but interest in these leaks already seems to have fizzled out here, unfortunately."

'Kid gloves' for military officers

Investigating the names of retired military officers and their families is going to be a test for Khan, who may have trouble launching a thorough probe against such figures. Kugelman and others believe that the accountability process will not ruffle the feathers of powerful military officials named in the Pandora Papers.

"Given the realities of Pakistani politics, one tends to expect that military officers are more likely than civilian leaders to receive the kid gloves treatment. But Khan could make a big statement by indicating that all Pakistanis identified in this report, whether civilian or military, should be investigated, with no exceptions," Kugelman said.

Malik, however, believes that the chances of an investigation into military officials named are slim. "There will be no investigation against the military officials," she said. "There might be an illusion of inquiry, an illusion of accountability, but nothing will happen."

Opinion | Why Imran Khan should be wary of Lt General Faiz Hamid who is poised be the next Pakistan Army chief

Sushant Sareen

The appointment of ISI chief Lt General Faiz Hameed as a Corps Commander gives him a shot at becoming the Army Chief next year when General Qamar Bajwa’s term ends.

The equivalent of a Cabinet reshuffle in India is the reshuffle of the military top brass in Pakistan. No surprise then that even a routine reshuffle of the top command and staff positions in the Pakistan Army invites so much attention. More than anything else, this is a statement on who calls the shots in each of these two countries. The appointment of ISI chief Lt General Faiz Hameed as a Corps Commander is, therefore, nothing out of the ordinary.

It is a routine transfer and wasn’t entirely unexpected. The only reason why it is inviting so much attention is that this gives Hameed a shot at becoming the Army Chief next year when the current incumbent General Qamar Bajwa’s term ends. Without having commanded a Corps for at least a year, Hameed wouldn’t have been eligible for the top job in Pakistan. But whether or not he gets the job is far from certain.

For one, there is speculation that Bajwa might well seek another extension. While that looks a bit difficult right now, it cannot be entirely ruled out. But assuming Bajwa condescends to retire, Hameed will be number four in the seniority list. That doesn’t mean much because in Pakistan the senior-most three-star general becoming the chief is more of an exception than the rule. The last senior-most Lt General who became chief was Jehangir Karamat. His successor Pervez Musharraf superseded three Lt General’s to become chief. Musharraf’s successor Ashfaq Kayani, his successor Raheel Sharif and even Bajwa superseded senior three-stars to become chief. Going by that record, Hameed is well placed to become chief, assuming Imran Khan is still the prime minister when the time comes to pick Bajwa’s successor just over a year from now.

The fact that Hameed is in the good books of Imran is hardly a secret. But to imagine that because he is a loyalist, or if you will a Youthia (a pejorative term for the cult of Imran’s followers), he will be Imran’s man as chief is a mistake that many prime ministers in Pakistan have made. The thing is that in Pakistan, prime ministers appoint their own boss—the Army chief.

The moment someone becomes chief, he becomes his own man. That is the nature of the job. Every prime minister thinks he is appointing his man as Army chief. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto superseded seven generals to appoint an obsequious Zia-ul-Haq and then got hanged by him.

Nawaz Sharif appointed five of them and had problems with all of them — Asif Nawaz Janjua who died in the saddle before he could get rid of Nawaz Sharif, Abdul Waheed Kakar who forced Nawaz to resign, Jehangir Karamat who was the only gentleman who quit after differences with Nawaz Sharif, Pervez Musharraf who did a coup and imprisoned Nawaz Sharif, Raheel Sharif who had serious tensions but did not depose Nawaz Sharif, and Qamar Bajwa who engineered the judicial coup to get rid of Nawaz Sharif.

The Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP] gave an extension to Kayani who in his second term almost got rid of the government over a cooked-up Memogate scandal. Therefore if Imran thinks he will have a smooth ride with Hameed, he has another thought coming.

Imran would, of course, think that since Hameed was instrumental in his ‘selection’ in the 2018 elections, he will ensure his victory in the 2023 general elections. In 2018, Hameed was Deputy DG ISI in charge of internal security but played the same role in the election that brought Imran into power that in 2002 was played by Major General Ehtesham Zamir who ensured the formation of the Pakistan Muslim League {Q} [PMLQ] government by a single vote.

He intimidated candidates to change loyalties or refuse tickets of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League {N} [PMLN], forced some candidates to withdraw from the election [remember when the Department of Agriculture became a euphemism for the ISI?], engineered splits in PMLN and other parties and corralled candidates and electives to PTI, created a new front in South Punjab to cut into PMLN votes and then got all these guys to merge their front in PTI. He was instrumental in the rise of the Barelvi extremist party Tehrik-e-Labbaik Pakistan which was supposed to cut into the votes of PMLN, he is accused to have ensured that the election transmission system RTS crashed which made it easy to rig the election results.

The services rendered by Hameed were not his personal decision but that of the Pakistan Army that placed its bets on getting Imran Khan into the saddle. In 2023, the Army might not want Imran back. The experience of the last three years has boomeranged on the Army which is getting all the flak for inflicting a disastrous and utterly incompetent man like Imran Khan on the country. If the public mood is ugly, it is unlikely the Army will risk backing Imran Khan regardless of how much Hameed likes him.

A lot will depend also on whether Bajwa decides to shaft Hameed. Postings and transfers in the Army are the prerogatives of the chief. If Hameed’s tenure as Corps Commander XI Corps (Peshawar) is cut short, it would remove him from the race.

Of course, it is probably a bit far-fetched to think Bajwa would do any such thing especially since the XI Corps is right now probably the most important Corps as it deals with Afghanistan. Hameed’s stint in the ISI during which he would have developed very close contacts with the Taliban, especially the Haqqanis who are the real rulers of Afghanistan, is probably the reason why he was picked for the Peshawar Corps.But this will not be a cakewalk because no one knows how things will play out in Afghanistan and inside Pakistan, what with the spike in terror attacks by the TTP. As the XI Corps Commander, Hameed along with his successor in ISI will be pivotal players in the 'peace negotiations' with some of the Pakistani Taliban. How he handles this will be critical for not just his future but also for Pakistan’s. There will also be the issue of a possible fallout of the meltdown in Afghanistan that will spill over into Pakistan.

The professional side of Hameed will of course be important in determining his future. But his personal side, including his peccadilloes, will also have some bearing on whether or not he becomes chief.

His sexual indiscretions—he is believed to have been shot by his wife who discovered his affair with someone—might well be overlooked by Imran who is himself no spring chicken when it comes to affairs. But Hameed doesn’t enjoy a good reputation within his own military fraternity.

Add to this the fact that just a day earlier the bête noire of the Pakistan Army, Maryam Nawaz Sharif filed a petition in which she has dragged in Hameed, who had been accused by a deposed Islamabad High Court Judge Shaukat Siddiqui of trying to influence him to convict Nawaz Sharif. While no one expects this petition to succeed — it is Pakistan, stupid! Generals don’t suffer adverse verdicts from courts — it nevertheless adds to Hameed’s notoriety.

The thing is that if Hameed stays in the race by the time the successor of Bajwa has to be picked, Imran Khan would be smart to drop him and pick a more non-political general. Hameed has shown himself to be a sort of ambitious and political general who will not hesitate to usurp power if the opportunity presents itself, as it might well if Imran Khan’s popularity continues to plummet or if widespread disturbances break out because the 2023 polls are rigged. In the event, Imran Khan might well end up as a Bhutto and Hameed as a clone of the obsequious but ruthless and cunning Zia-ul-Haq.

https://www.firstpost.com/world/opinion-why-imran-khan-should-be-wary-of-lt-general-faiz-hamid-who-is-poised-be-the-next-pakistan-army-chief-10032931.html

No More Assistance Should Be Given To Pakistan: Former US Advisor

Gen (rtd) H R McMaster, said that the US needs to hold the Pakistan prime minister accountable for some of his comments after the fall of Kabul in August.

Asserting that Pakistan has "had it both ways" for too long, a former US national security advisor during the Trump Administration has advised lawmakers against any fresh aid to Islamabad.Testifying before a powerful Congressional committee on Afghanistan, Gen (rtd) H R McMaster, said that the US needs to hold the Pakistan prime minister accountable for some of his comments after the fall of Kabul in August.

It is also delusional, he said, to think that any of the money that would go to the Taliban or through the Taliban for humanitarian purposes would immediately be used by the Taliban to solidify their power and to become an even greater threat.

"So, we're in a situation where we're facing a really extraordinary dilemma that it's going to be tough for us to mitigate the humanitarian crisis without empowering the Taliban," he said in response to a question.

"I don't think we should give any assistance to Pakistan at all. I think Pakistan has had it both ways for way too long. I think Pakistan should be confronted with its behavior over the years that has actually resulted, I think, in large measure in this outcome," McMaster said.

It was during the Trump Administration that the US had blocked all security assistance to Pakistan. The Biden Administration has not resumed the security aide yet.

"I think we ought to hold Imran Khan responsible for his comments when Kabul fell and he said that the Afghan people have been unshackled. Why should we send a dime to Pakistan under any conditions? I think that they should be confronted with international isolation because of their support for jihadist terrorists, who are threats to humanity, including Haqqani network, the Taliban, and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba," he said.

Responding to a question from Congressman Scott Perry, during the Congressional hearing convened by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, McMaster said that it is a good idea to remove Pakistan's status as a major non-NATO ally. "I would say the only time I think we have ever laid out a very clear and realistic assessment of South Asia and prioritised the strategy was President Trump's speech in August of 2017. Now, he abandoned it and he doubled down on the flaws of the Obama administration. I don't know how that happened. But I think if you go back to that August 2017 speech, that was the proper approach to Pakistan as well, which called for a suspension of all assistance to Pakistan until Pakistan fundamentally changed its behaviour," McMaster said.

Congressman Bill Keating said Pakistan remains a problem and the US needs to assess it.

"Its long standing activities, by many accounts, have been negative. I think that's putting it mildly. For decades, though, for decades, whether you go back to''96 when the Taliban took control, Pakistan was one of the first to recognise them," he said. "When you go through the change in 2001 in Afghanistan and then the reconstruction of the Taliban starting around 2005, they were there giving assistance, by all accounts, and I believe those accounts are accurate. And indeed, right up into this current change in the government, Pakistan, there were many people that suggested their intelligence was embedded with them," Keating said.

Pakistan's relationship with the Haqqani network is one that is of great concern.

"That may indeed affect our relations with India in that respect. But can you comment on that? I think they have been duplicitous, not just recently, not just in the few months of this administration, but for decades in this with many administrations, Republican and Democratic alike," he said.

Former US Ambassador to Pakistan Ryan Croker acknowledged that Pakistan worked against the US in some very fundamental aspects with their support for the Taliban.

"Earlier, I tried to present their narrative as to why. We were going to walk out, and they did not want to be left with the Taliban as a mortal enemy. They may get that anyway. And as satisfying as it would be to a lot of us, myself included, to do something to punish Pakistan for this, I don't think we have the luxury. They are already worried over the repercussions inside their own country of the Taliban's so-called victory in Afghanistan," he said.

"Now, we can say, 'Yeah. Well, they deserve whatever they get''. But again, a blow-up in Kashmir is going to bring a regional war. So, I think reassessment is always good, but let's reassess with a clear eye on the dangers now that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has created throughout the region. We do not need a completely destabilized Pakistani state with nuclear weapons," Croker said. McMaster told the lawmakers that the Taliban was backed by ISI and that's why they recaptured Afghanistan. "The Taliban's differential advantage was the backing by the ISI of other groups. But it was the unscrupulous units who are willing to terrorise. They didn't give up their differential advantage. And so, I don't think it's a mystery at all why they collapsed. And I think it should be unacceptable, to disparage the Afghans who did fight, and over 60,000 of them made the ultimate sacrifice to preserve the freedoms we're now seeing," he said. The Taliban, he said, went around to the Afghan units, and they said, "Hey, here's how this is going to go." With the backing of the Pakistani ISI, intertwined with the Haqqani network and Al-Qaida, what they did is they told those commanders, "Hey, listen. You accommodate with us. We give you the signal, or we kill your family. How does that sound?" he said.

And that's why the Afghan forces collapsed in addition to the withdrawal of US intelligence support, the withdrawal of our airpower, which was the Afghan forces differential advantage, McMaster said.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/former-us-national-security-advisor-no-more-assistance-should-be-given-to-pakistan-2566552

Sindh province will play a leading role in safeguarding the rights of the common people – Surendar Valasai, Special Assistant to Chief Minister for Human Rights

A comprehensive Sindh Human Rights Policy will be announced before the end of 2021 as the process of consultation with all the stakeholders, including civil society and government departments was underway in this regard. A delegation of Huqooq-e-Pakistan, a joint venture of the European Union and the Ministry of Human Rights led by Ali Dayan Hassan called on the Special Assistant to Chief Minister for Human Rights Surendar Valasai to discuss the key ingredients of the policy. 

Secretary Human Rights Department Jawed Sibghatullah Mahar and other officials of the department were also present.

Surendar Valasai said that Sindh Human Rights Policy will be a comprehensive document covering all aspects of human rights in the province as per the directives of Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah.

He said that protecting the human rights of every citizen was the responsibility of every state around the world and Sindh province would be providing a leading role in safeguarding the rights of common people by exploring all the tools available with the provincial government.

Huqooq-e-Pakistan has been given a task to extend support to the Sindh Human Rights Department to draft the Human Rights Policy.

https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/25578/