After US Afghanistan withdrawal, will Pakistan, Iran and Turkey take over?


 By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Each of the three are preparing for the day after the US leaves. 


Moves by Turkey, Pakistan and Iran are afoot to fill the void left by the US as Washington draws down its last troops from Afghanistan after two decades of war there. The Taliban is advancing on various fronts and there are concerns that when America and its partner forces from other countries in NATO leave, instability and terror could spread.Turkish media is boasting that Ankara may rush in to backfill the US withdrawal by taking over Kabul International Airport. But Turkey won’t be sending more troops to secure the airport, Ankara’s media reports. It likely understands the crucial importance of controlling airports.For instance, Ankara has recent experience sending mercenaries to Libya and Syria, and also involving itself in Azerbaijan and northern Iraq. Turkey also has experience with airports. In the 2000s a Turkish construction group helped modernize Erbil International Airport.
Turkey’s model for airport control and influence may be by watching how Iran used its role in the Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut airports to build up control for weapons trafficking and other activities. Iran and its network of militias and proxies play a key role at these airports in the region.
Turkey may want a hand in Kabul for reasons of its own desire. It has a close relationship with Pakistan and both countries have religious far-right leaders who are seeking to assert their power. Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Taliban through its intelligence services and the Turkey-Pakistan relationship could lead to them partitioning Afghanistan or facilitating the Taliban taking over part of the country. Meanwhile, Iran has its own interests in Afghanistan. It has long sought to target US forces there and eject the United States. It also has designs on a larger presence in Central Asia. This could dovetail with the Pakistan-Turkey plans, but it could also lead to some competition or flashpoints.
Iran ostensibly would like to protect the Shi’ite Hazzara minority in Afghanistan. Islamist extremists linked to Pakistan and ISIS, as well as the Taliban, have targeted Shi’ites in genocidal bombing attacks. These attacks spare no one, including attacks on girl’s schools and children. Iran would not welcome more such attacks. But Tehran has flirted with Al Qaeda, hosting its members, and other extremist groups in the past. How this fits in with Turkey’s goals and Pakistan’s goals is as yet not entirely clear. What is clear by reading the press accounts is that each country has its own policy and is preparing for the day after the US leaves. Even when it does leave, there will still be hundreds of American personnel in Afghanistan. Around 650 troops will stay, according to reports. The Taliban says it has a “right” to react if the troops remain. Basically, the Taliban appears to be dictating terms to the US now, a major reversal from 2002 when the US helped crush the Islamist movement.
Evidence that Iran and Pakistan may work together can be found at a Press TV article highlighting how Islamabad will no longer permit US bases in the country. In recent interviews, key Pakistani officials have indicated how they are growing closer to China and have voiced antisemitic claims. Iran also has a new 25-year deal with China. Iran’s goal though will be to increase trade with Pakistan and China, and instability in Afghanistan would not help achieve that. This means that insofar as Pakistan supports the Taliban, the goal will be to ease their conquest of the country. Turkey moving into the airport could fit into that design as well.
Afghan leader Ashraf Ghani was in Washington to meet with US President Joe Biden late last week. He compared Afghanistan’s current predicament to an 1861 moment of the US Civil War. “The senseless violence has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” the president said. “But we’re going to stick with you and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.” The comparison to 1861 is an indication that the Afghan leadership wants to mobilize the country to stop the Taliban offensive. However they may find that Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and other countries have other plans.It remains to be seen where those countries will position themselves and whether Afghanistan falls to extremists and becomes a base of terror or whether stability can be maintained and the Taliban offensive checked. Considering the religious extremist nature of the governments in Ankara, Tehran and Islamabad, things do not bode well.

Pakistani PM's comments on women's clothing, sexual assault spark protests

 Pakistan's prime minister sparked protests this week after suggesting during an interview with Axios' Jonathan Swan that there would be fewer sexual assaults in the country if women dressed modestly.


The big picture: When asked by Swan if the clothes women wear could provoke acts of sexual violence, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said: "It depends on which society you live in. If in a society where people haven’t seen that sort of thing, it will have an impact on them."

  • Khan's comments drew nationwide protests and calls for a public apology, according to the Washington Post.

Driving the news: Some women in Pakistan responded to Khan's comments by sharing photos of the clothes they were wearing when they were sexually harassed, per the Washington Post.

  • Women also shared anecdotes about inappropriate behavior they have experienced, even when dressed conservatively in traditional headscarves and shalwar kameez.
  • At a protest on Saturday, women were encouraged to bring clothing that they or somebody they know were wearing when they experienced sexual violence.

What they're saying: “This is dangerously simplistic and only reinforces the common public perception that women are ‘knowing’ victims and men ‘helpless’ aggressors,” the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and more than a dozen other civil society groups said in a statement published on June 24.

  • “For the head of government — a government that claims to defend the rights of women and vulnerable groups — to insist on this view is simply inexcusable.”
  • https://www.axios.com/pakistan-prime-minister-protests-women-sexual-assault-dc94d4c0-dc5b-4f19-840e-3d0348c64cc1.html

#PPP’s Kashmir policy is that the people of Kashmir will decide for Kashmir – Chairman PPP #Bilawal Bhutto Zardari

Chairman Pakistan Peoples Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in connection with the party’s election campaign addressed a mammoth public gathering at Kotli Azad Kashmir. Former Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf, Qamar Zaman Kaira and candidates of Kotli Division were also present on the occasion.
Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari addressing the public gathering said that the Pakistan Peoples Party was formed on the issue of Kashmir that journey is still continued. We learnt from Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto that if need be we will fight for a thousand year for Kashmir. We learnt from Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto that we will shed our blood where Kashmiri’s shed their sweat. The people who use to say that PPP is finished they should come here and see the fervour and zeal of the people of Kotli. The PPP is still the most vibrant force from Karachi to Kashmir. The PPP’s policy about Kashmir is that the people of Kashmir will decide their own future. Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s slogan was that self-determination of Kashmiris’ is the only slogan for Kashmiris. Qaud-e-Awam used to say that he cannot err on Kashmir even in his sleep but whenever this puppet selected Prime Minister talks about Kashmir in the Parliament, he always commit a mistake. When Modi had attacked Occupied Kashmir the coward Imran had said, “What can I do?”. The people of Occupied Kashmir are fighting against the tyranny of Modi and the people of Azad Kashmir are fighting against the economic crises created by this incapable Prime Minister Imran Khan. This government is trying to impose taxes on your energy projects. This government engulfed people in extreme difficulties. Neither Afghanistan nor India or Bangladesh have the inflation as much we have. The change Imran Khan has brought is poverty, inflation and unemployment.
He asked the charge crowd that they have to campaign door to door and tell the people that they want to impose on the people a puppet Prime Minister. We want to Prime Minister in Kashmir who leads from the front and for this, you have the elect the PPP candidates from entire Kashmir. So that we can form a government which can respond not only to Modi what also this puppet. Imran Khan is trying to rig this election in Kashmir because he himself is a production of rigged the elections. PPP has done a lot for the common people. If a poor grower owns a piece of land, the PPP has given him that land. The PPP gave BISP program for poor women. Whatever projects will be carried out in Kashmir, the PPP will be behind it. Coming to Kotli whichever bridge or road he passed by was the project of the PPP. Chaudhry Yasin inaugurated 19 colleges in his constituency and the PPP founded 14 colleges in Kotli.
Chairman Bilawal asked people not to believe the false promises by the puppet government. The PPP is the only party which has served the people and has solved the problems faced by the people. Chairman PPP said that we have a combination of experienced and young candidates and this combination will solve the problems of Kashmir people. The PPP will solve the water problem in Kotli. It will also build a ring road. The PPP will also give an airport to the people of Kotli. We have to give a 100 bed hospital to Kotli. We will have to look after the people of the Kashmir because we cannot leave them on the mercy of Imran Khan. The PPP increased salaries, pensions for governments servants as well as our valiant soldiers. The PPP when comes to power will do one job on priority basis and that is to increase the salaries of the employees. Imran Khan had promised to provide 10 million jobs and five million houses but he made thousands of people unemployed and snatched thousands of houses from the poor people. Chairman Bilawal asked people to elect PPP candidates from the whole Kotli Division. He appeal to the people to vote for Waleed Inqalabi from LA-13, Sardar Muhammad Bashir from LA-11, Javed from LA-9, Muhammad Aftab Anjum from LA-8 and Chaudhry Muhammad Yasin from LA-10 & 12.
Earlier the PPP Chairman paid a visit to Dargah Gulhar Sharif where he visited Mazar’s of Qazi Fateh Muhammad and Pir Muhammad Sadiq. He also met the administrator of the Dargah Qazi Muhammad Rafique and expressed his good wishes for Sahibzada Zahid Sultani. He also prayed for liberation of Kashmir and stability of Pakistan at the Dargah.
https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/25178/