Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Will Pakistan’s Military Hold a Free and Fair Election in Gilgit-Baltistan?
By Umair Jamal
The November election in the disputed territory will be closely watched in Pakistan and internationally.
Pakistan has announced its decision to hold Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly elections on November 15. Currently, Gilgit-Baltistan is not represented in either house of the national parliament in Pakistan. Thus, the region is not entitled to participate in the country’s several institutional structures.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) completed its five-year tenure in Gilgit-Baltistan earlier this year but the election has been delayed due to the COVID-19 situation and other political issues. Apart from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), PML-N has a strong political base in the region. A transparent election Gilgit-Baltistan will likely bring PML-N back to power.
At this point, it is unclear whether the election will take place independent of any undue interference. November’s election in Gilgit-Baltistan will take place under the military’s supervision and the chances of its interference cannot be ruled out. However, this time around, one cannot be sure if the military wants to play any role beyond ensuring an election acceptable to all political parties.
Arguably, it is not going to be easy to rig the upcoming election. This is not because of administrative reasons but due to political controversy it might generate nationally and internationally, and implications such interference can have on Pakistan’s security policy.
The election has increasingly become the face of the opposition-led agitation campaign, aimed at removing the current government. It is worrying that the debate on the strategically important election has become controversial in Pakistan even before the polls. Last week, Pakistan’s opposition parties boycotted the government’s proposal to hold dialogue with the opposition on Gilgit-Baltistan (GB)’s election. Terming it the “center’s interference in elections,” opposition parties have called the decision a “first step towards implementing their 26-point declaration” to overthrow the government. PMLN has warned against “making any effort to rig the GB polls and said any such action would be against the national interest and national security.”
India’s foreign office recently said that the incoming election in Gilgit-Baltistan has “no legal basis whatsoever.” On the other hand, Islamabad is under pressure from China to grant Gilgit-Baltistan a constitutionally protected status as Beijing doesn’t want to risk its investments in the disputed territory.
Considering that China has been pushing Islamabad for the union of Gilgit-Baltistan with mainland Pakistan, the Pakistani military would want to ensure a transition that is free of political controversy. Further, because of the fact that India has declared its opposition to any move to integrate Gilgit-Baltistan into Pakistan, the country’s civil and military leaders have all the more reason to ensure a peaceful transition of power there.
Pakistan military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s recent meeting with opposition leaders on the constitutional status of Gilgit-Baltistan was quite telling. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s absence from the meeting was noted by all concerned quarters. Arguably, Khan’s absence from the meeting shows two things. One, the country’s military may not be receptive to any idea of siding with the ruling party in the Gilgit-Baltistan election. Second, Pakistan’s political leaders remain at odds with each other and the military has increasingly found itself playing the role of a negotiator. Thus, Khan has left the responsibility of producing consensus among major political stakeholders on the issue to the military.
As things stand, the established balance of the military working with political parties on issues of national security may have been shaken. Opposition parties are demanding a free and fair election before the country’s parliament is engaged to change Gilgit-Baltistan’s constitutional status. This leaves the military in a tough position: a free and fair election is not likely to bring the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to power there. This essentially means that either PPP or PMLN will form the government in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Opposition parties may very well bag a historic win on the heels of an intense clash with the military and the federal government. This might be a tough pill to swallow for the PTI and the military as they will have to support PMLN or PPP-led rule in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Add to this concerns that the move to integrate Gilgit-Baltistan into Pakistan will weaken Islamabad’s position on the Kashmir issue. Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s former high commissioner to India, said he would advise “Islamabad to think hard on the issue of Gilgit Baltistan. A step taken in reaction to what India did to IOK [Indian-occupied Kashmir] will engender avoidable controversies. Don’t stir up hornet’s nest and weaken Pakistan’s principled position on the dispute. At least honor the new political map you issued on August 4.”
However, Pakistan’s history shows that the military has at times preferred managing domestic politics to issues of national significance. It is quite possible that we might see the PTI winning a historic election in Gilgit Baltistan, leaving behind a political mess which will impact Pakistan’s national security and Kashmir policy.
Pakistan: State in state of confusion
Our country is passing through a state of confusion where there is no certainty of happenings at the national level. We seem to be directionless and think that some flattery media reports can satisfy the public whereas the public wants to see on the ground the improvement in the life of a common man by experiencing the change. The people are passing through an unfortunate era of dissatisfaction at present times in overall governance and economy. The businessman is upset as he is uncertain about the future of his business ventures as he is confused about frequent changes in trade, import, and export policies. The major local home-grown industry is dependent on imported raw material and with hype in the dollar made major raw materials to jump in the prices and hence this increase in prices brought very adverse effects on the local industries which were already crippled with a high rate of bank interests. The stability of a country depends on stable political and economic systems whereas an unstable and confusing system brings national growth under stress. The state needs to bring unity within every segment of the society but we have been suffering from of kind trend which is full of internal tensions. This distressing system is multiplying many issues on daily basis and it looks as if this is running on a day-to-day basis. All political parties have been forced to come out against the government that itself having failed to create unity among all the ranks and files of the main administrative and operational structure of the society. Civil-military relation is very important for our country and it has been recently fragmented by some recent statements by government ministers. They are making that information public, which was to be confidential, contrary to the national interests and that has further confused the already fragile situation. Everyone has different views on the ongoing row between opposition and government and if the state matters are not run further to the stated norms, the public will be under more grip of confusion and the country will suffer more and more. A wave of an internal tussle has arisen within the corridor of power as well which will make it more difficult for PM Imran Khan to run the state affairs smoothly. These failures will reflect negatively on the present parliamentary system as the state apparatus is continuously fragmented due to various unsustainable blows. It looks that the APC called by the Opposition has forced the government to bring the opposition under further pressure by the recent move of roping in of Maulana Fazlur Rehman by NAB which will provide a reason to create unrest leading to protests by his supporters and madrasa students especially in KPK and Balochistan, where JUI has a stronghold and there will be more unrest in KPK and the capital whereas Maulana Fazlur Rehman will do his best to show his street power. It looks sooner or later the other political parties will join Maulana Fazlur Rehman whereas PTM is already supporting him. It looks like some more prominent politicians will soon be arrested and the old political arms twisting era will strike back and a wave of victimisation could visibly be seen increasing. There are reports that there will be some high-profile convictions in the country in the coming months which will further create political negative hype and political demoralisation. It looks that half-hearted attempts of opposition on PM Imran Khan will make him more furious and he may take any adverse administrative action at any level to try to consolidate his grip on the institutions and other organs of the system. There is no clarity in our political directions. The present ongoing system has failed to reduce poverty and the price hike has increased by many folds and price hike slogan may force a common man to come out on the streets which will add further law and order situations. The rupee is further sliding down and inflation showing an upward trend whereas the growth rate is going down with no additional measures to improve it. The pandemic of COVID-19 is further gripping the country and both public and government are acting as if the coronavirus had already ended. The wave of the corona is likely to jolt badly as the government statements have created the impression that the coronavirus has been controlled. This new wave will be another negative factor for the economy. It is unfortunate to state that our country is facing all these uncontrolled negative blows which are not a healthy sign for the economy and the stability of the country. What options do we have with the present unfortunate scenario when hyperactive politics is enlarging its roots of polarisation. The non-transparent and non-friendly politics is reducing the space for real democracy. We play cosmetic politics for the public and believe more in undercover politics to serve our motives whereas political science has its revenge to expose hypocrisy and dishonesty by many in the public domain. The ultimate sufferers of such a depleted political system are the common men. My above narration is basically with strong advice to avoid political divide which I have been advocating for a long. The political divide is a dangerous process that has already given us irreversible setbacks and the country cannot afford any political or religious divide in the present situation. I hope the government starts working to bring the political elite on one page on national issues. I pray that may we pass through this phase of political confusion without any major debacle and may God protect our country and give our leaders the wisdom to come out of the dangerous syndrome of false egos. The nation needs to converge to unity and not towards further polarisation. The capital is buzzing with the sound of negative rumours nowadays and let's hope it may not face some jolts in the coming days which is detrimental to our national interests. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/722365-pak-state-in-state-of-confusion