Saturday, June 29, 2019
#Pakistan: Misplaced Expectations – Analysis
By Ajit Kumar Singh
At the end of the June 16-21, 2019, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meet, Pakistan, as expected remained on the FATF ‘grey list’ along with seven other countries. A FATF spokesman categorically stated, “The FATF has decided to continue to keep Pakistan on its compliance document (i.e. Grey List) for the ICRG [International Co-operation Review Group] monitoring…”
On June 21, 2019, FATF in a release , however, stated that “the FATF expresses concern that not only did Pakistan fail to complete its action plan items with January [2019] deadlines, it also failed to complete its action plan items due May 2019”. The release went on to add that “the FATF strongly urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its action plan by October 2019 when the last set of action plan items are set to expire” and lastly warned, “otherwise, the FATF will decide the next step at that time for insufficient progress”.
On June 27, 2018, FATF had decided to place Pakistan, along with seven other countries, on its ‘grey list’. In a release dated June 29, 2018, FATF stated, “as part of its ongoing review of compliance with the AML/CFT standards, the FATF identifies the following jurisdictions [eight countries] that have strategic AML/CFT deficiencies…” It had given Pakistan a 27-point action plan at this stage.
Pakistan had then made a high-level political commitment to work with FATF and the Asia Pacific Group (APG) to strengthen its Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) regime and to address its strategic counter-terrorist financing-related deficiencies. Pakistan promised that it would work to implement the FATF action in 10 steps, which included:
- adequately demonstrating its proper understanding of the TF [Terrorist Financing] risks posed by the terrorist groups identified by FATF [Da’esh, AQ, JuD, FiF, LeT, JeM, HQN, and persons affiliated with the Taliban], and conducting supervision on a risk-sensitive basis.
- demonstrating that authorities are identifying cash couriers and enforcing controls on illicit movement of currency and understanding the risk of cash couriers being used for TF.
- demonstrating that law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are identifying and investigating the widest range of TF activity and that TF investigations and prosecutions target designated persons and entities.
- demonstrating that facilities and services owned or controlled by designated person are deprived of their resources and the usage of the resources.
Pakistan had asked for a 15-month time period, to implement all these changes, which finishes in September 2019, so any hope of FATF successfully putting it in the blacklist before September 2019 was unreasonable. It is notable, however, that some media reports claimed that the FATF has given an all clear to Pakistan on only two of 27 action plans it was supposed to complete to get out of the ‘grey list’.
The FATF, as in June 2019, had made a similar assessment in February 2019 as well. On February 22, 2019, an FATF release had stated that “given the limited progress on action plan items due in January 2019, the FATF urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its action plan, particularly those with timelines of May 2019”.
It is pertinent to recall here that Pakistan was grey-listed from 2008 to 2010 and then from 2012 to 2015, but successfully evaded blacklisting. It will not be a big surprise that it will come out of the ‘grey-list’ again instead of being ‘blacklisted’, even in the absence of substantive compliance.
It is now a fight for diplomatic supremacy between Islamabad and Delhi and that will ensure the status of Pakistan. Pakistan has already made some gains. Indeed, during the June 16-21, 2019, meet, Turkey, Malaysia and China opposed the move backed by India, United States, and the United Kingdom to ‘blacklist’ Pakistan. On June 19, 2019, Jean Francois Caution, the Ambassador of the European Union, thus observed,
We are ready to help Pakistan to come out of the grey list of FATF and it is a matter of fact that Pakistan and its people have made tremendous sacrifices to bring peace and security to the country. We acknowledge these sacrifices with our hearts. Apart from terrorism, European Union is standing beside Pakistan in other important sectors too, including education and health.
Currently the FATF has 39 full members – 37 member countries, who have voting rights, and two regional organisations (Gulf Co-operation Council and European Commission). It is of utmost importance for Pakistani interests that Saudi Arabia, its close ally, which was representing the Gulf Co-operation Council since 2015, become a full FATF member, on June 21, 2019. More importantly, Pakistan’s all-weather friend China is all set to secure FATF presidency on July 1, 2019, taking over from the United States. Moreover, the European Union (15 countries having voting rights are members of European Union) has already promised to drum up support for Pakistan.
Being on the grey list has had little impact on Pakistan, as foreign funding for Islamabad remains unabated. Reports indicate that, “being added to the grey list does not imply any economic sanctions, but serves as a signal to the global financial and banking system about heightened risks in transactions with the country in question”.
Significantly, even when Pakistan was on the grey-list between 2008 and 2010 and again between 2012 and 2015, it received International Monetary Fund (IMF) ‘bail-outs’. According to IMF data, Pakistan received its first IMF bail-out in 1958, and another 20 bail-outs thereafter: 1958, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1977, 1980, 1981, 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2008, and 2013. An amount of SDR 19.38 billion [1 SDR=1.38 USD] was agreed on for these bail-out packages, of which SDR 13.79 billion has been withdrawn.
More recently, as Second Sight noted, announcing the 22nd ‘bail-out’ for Pakistan in, the IMF, in a release on May 12, 2019, stated that “the Pakistani authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff level agreement on economic policies that could be supported by a 39-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for about US$6 billion”. The release, however, went on to add that “this agreement is subject to IMF management approval and to approval by the Executive Board, subject to the timely implementation of prior actions and confirmation of international partners’ financial commitments”. Among other “commitments”, Pakistan is expected to continue “anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism efforts.” Given past history, the approval is all but certain, even without Pakistan fulfilling these commitments. Crucially, the commitment related to terrorism is unlikely to be fulfilled.
The occasional theatrics of putting Pakistan on the ‘grey-list’ or threatening it with the ‘blacklist’, as well as imposing various conditions to provide ‘bail-outs’ will continue. But with no effective and comprehensive sanctions, there is little hope of Pakistani giving up its policy of using terror as strategic asset.
Blogger Bilal Khan's murder spotlights fragile free speech in Pakistan
The recent killing of a young Pakistani blogger, known for criticizing the nation's powerful military, has once again reignited the debate about the deteriorating freedom of expression in the country.
The stabbing to death of Muhammad Bilal Khan, a 22-year-old blogger, in Islamabad on Sunday night showed how fragile free speech in Pakistan is. Khan, who has over 16,000 followers on Twitter, 48,000 on his YouTube channel and 22,000 on Facebook, is known for criticizing the country's powerful military and the spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).
The blogger was also religiously inclined and held controversial views. "My son's only fault was that he spoke about the Prophet," the deceased's father Abdullah said.
But Khan's killing hours after posting a sarcastic tweet criticizing the appointment of General Faiz Hameed as the new ISI chief, has fueled speculation that the security establishment was behind his murder. Several Twitter users said that his criticism of the Pakistan army and the ISI led to his killing, although these allegations can't be verified.
Soon after his killing, #Justice4MuhammadBilalKhan started trending on social media.
Some rights activists believe the incident has created fear among those who are critical toward the nation's powerful military. Pakistan's army denies any role in curbing free speech or targeting those who criticize it.
The military has previously been accused of being involved in abductions of bloggers critical of the security establishment
Increasing censorship
The country's non-governmental Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has called on the government to conduct an impartial inquiry into the killing and bring the perpetrators to justice. It also demanded that the authorities protect people regardless of their political and religious views.
HRCP's Asad Butt believes the space for free speech is shrinking in Pakistan. "The fact that he was murdered hours after a tweet criticizing the appointment of the ISI chief raises important questions. Who has the capacity to trace the blogger in such a quick span of time, get his mobile number and kill him in this way?"
Butt says the murder will lead to increased censorship in the country. "The media in the country have already been stifled. A little space was available on Twitter and other social media networks, where some media people and other independent-minded ones would express critical views," he pointed out. "Now, even they will be scared of expressing their views."
Pakistani journalists and media outlets say they are facing increasing restrictions, particularly when it comes to critical coverage of the security establishment.
Authorities are also targeting social media, asking Twitter to suspend accounts and submitting thousands of requests to Facebook to take down pages for a variety of reasons, ranging from criticism of the military to propagating hate and insulting Islam. The government says the curbs are aimed at monitoring extremist content.
Controversial actions
In recent months, the security establishment has been accused of arresting dozens of workers of the Pashtun Tahafaz (Protection) Movement, or PTM, which has criticized the military's actions in the tribal regions in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the western province of Baluchistan.
"We have been facing a media blackout since the very first day," Mohsin Dawar, a parliamentarian and founding member of the PTM, told the AP news agency last December. "The military now is enjoying unquestioned power in the country, and the PTM questioned their power."
PTM leader Said Alam Mahsud told DW that there is no freedom of expression in the country. "At least 27 activists of our movement have been arrested for merely criticizing the army on social media," he said. "We held massive rallies, but the media was instructed by the army's media wing not to cover our rallies, protests and public gatherings. The situation is so dire that the army instructs news channels as to what topics they should discuss during their talk shows and what to avoid."
Blame the army for everything?
Still, some in Pakistan say Bilal Khan's murder has nothing to do with the military. General Amjad Shoib, a defender of the Pakistani army policies, dismissed the allegations, saying: "There are many anti-army social media activists with millions of followers, but the army has never harmed them. What will it get out of the murder of an ordinary man whose following ran into a few thousands?"
The allegations are "completely baseless," Shoib said, criticizing the rights groups leveling allegations. "It's become a fashion to blame the army for everything."
To back his criticism, Shoib pointed to a previous incident, when an activist named Sabeen Mehmood was killed in Karachi and some sections immediately blamed the army for the murder. He noted that the "Islamic State" group later claimed responsibility for the killing.
Ahsan Raza, a Lahore-based political analyst, said the reason behind the blogger's killing is still unclear. "Most of Bilal Khan's tweets were filled with hate. He was the member of a religious group that is going through internal fragmentation. So there is a high possibility that he might have been killed because of internal rivalry."
Afghan President Ghani is praising Pakistan & releasing Taliban leaders. Something’s fishy
AIMAL FAIZI
Ashraf Ghani’s government must not repeat the disastrous mistake of offering yet another ‘olive branch’ to Pakistan.
After more than three years, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani is on his third visit to Islamabad for a new episode of rapprochement with Pakistan. He reportedly had a one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan Thursday and praised Pakistan’s “efforts” towards the Afghan peace process.
Since almost a month, Ghani’s administration has been propagating the false notion that Pakistan is moving in a positive direction in its Afghan policy and there has been a ‘change’ in Islamabad’s thinking vis-à-vis Afghanistan and the region.
This may come as a miracle, especially if, as an Afghan, you have always been told and have witnessed just the opposite all your life. Is there, all of a sudden, a genuine warmness in the ties between Kabul and Islamabad? Or, is it empty rhetoric and an effort to appease Pakistan afresh?
Kabul should certainly engage Pakistan and leave all doors open for talks and diplomacy to improve bilateral relations. However, Ghani’s government must not repeat the disastrous mistake of offering yet another ‘olive branch’ to Pakistan to secure its support in the presidential election. While it is unlikely that Islamabad will mend its policies on Afghanistan in the near future, any Afghan government or group that places its narrow interests before its people and strikes a secret deal with Pakistan for personal gains is evil.
Break with the past?
After months of bitter accusations against Pakistan, Afghan National Security Adviser (NSA) Hamdullah Mohib travelled to Islamabad last month to prepare the ground for Ghani’s visit. On his return to Kabul, in an interview with Tolo News, Mohib repeatedly said that Pakistan is “moving in a positive direction”.
According to Afghan government’s observation of Pakistan over the last “ten months”, Mohib said: “We see that they [Pakistani officials] are moving towards a policy shift [regarding Afghanistan]. Whether [their] policy changes or not, it might become clear as a result of our talks [with Pakistan on June 27]. But their thinking is positive.” “Pakistan now sees its interest in Afghanistan’s security,” he added.
The Afghan NSA’s recent statement contradicts what he said about Pakistan just three months ago.
In March 2019, speaking at an event organised by Asia Society in New York, he had said: “We are not going to buy any more words from Pakistan”. He said while Pakistan speaks about “brotherhood”, “all we see is terrorists coming our way and no brotherhood”.
The ground reality
On the ground, terrorism is on the rise and Afghan people continue to be at its receiving end. A new report says that Afghanistan is “the least peaceful country” and “the deadliest spot in the world for terrorism”.
Afghan government estimates that “at least 50 people” die every day fighting terrorism. Suicide bombers continue to strike our major cities, including Kabul. The US and Afghan forces have stepped up air and ground operations against the Taliban, the Haqqani Network and other Pakistani terror groups.
According to official estimates provided by Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence and the National Directorate of Security (NDS), Afghan forces since June have launched hundreds of air and ground combat operations in more than 15 of the country’s 34 provinces. The Ministry of Defence’s data shows that Afghan Special Forces carry out 70-80 operations every 24 hours “in different parts of the country”. It is simultaneously carrying out a dozen airstrikes regularly.
If these official numbers are not just a part of Ghani administration’s propaganda, then we are certainly caught in a bloody foreign war, where the more we fight, the more entangled our forces and people become. This proves that the US security and defence pact with Afghanistandid not translate into peace and stability for the country. President Ghani’s military strategy of ‘Afghanising’ the US war and intensifying military operations across the country have terribly failed.
Eye on 2019 election
Ghani is desperate to win another presidential term. Therefore, he is eager to get Pakistan’s support not only for dealing with the Taliban but, most importantly, to win the 2019 presidential contest.
Ghani, according to former senior Afghan national security and intelligence officials, allegedly struck a dirty deal with the Pakistani establishment in 2013.
In August 2013, at the end of then-President Hamid Karzai’s formal visit to Pakistan, Ashraf Ghani, then a senior adviser to the President, “remained” in Pakistan and parted ways with the Afghan delegation “against the protocol”, according to former Afghan NSA Rangin Dadfar Spanta. In his memoir, Spanta writes that Ghani’s overstay in Islamabad helped him get Pakistan’s support for his candidacy in 2014 presidential elections. “The Taliban, at the behest of Pakistan, supported Dr Ghani in the presidential election and in those parts of the country where it was possible for him to receive more votes, the Taliban openly ceased all their operations and threats [attacks],” Spanta says in his book.
Former Afghan spy chief and a presidential candidate in the 2019 election, Rahmatullah Nabil, also believes that Pakistan’s interference, which he calls ‘Pakistan’s sympathy for Ghani’, in 2014 election favoured then-presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani.
On Ghani’s ongoing visit to Islamabad, Nabil tweeted that the Afghan president is “desperate to remain in power” and is “making secret deals with the Pakistani establishment”. He believes “similar” deals were made in the past too, “prior to the election”.
Fighting Taliban, freeing Taliban?
Ghani decision to release nearly 900 inmates from prisons across the country has attracted sharp criticism. Local media reports suggest that most of these prisoners are members of the Taliban. Afghanistan government has, so far, released 490 Taliban fighters who, according to President Ghani, are the “ambassadors of peace” now and “will not return to war”.
Coinciding with this, a key former Taliban shadow governor of Faryab province, Qari Salahuddin, has escaped from the National Directorate of Security (NDS) detention facility.
After his mysterious jailbreak, Salahuddin is reportedly back on the battlefield and the Taliban celebrated his return in Qaisar at a big public gathering. While the government is not providing any clarification or details regarding the incident, the local media has raised questions over his escape.
Current and former government officials and presidential candidates are questioning Ghani’s intention behind releasing the Taliban prisoners. Speaking at the Council of Ministers meeting last week, Chief Executive of Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah said that the release of the Taliban prisoners “will lose its actual impact if it takes the form of a [election] campaign”.
The same can be said about Ghani’s new stance on Pakistan. Afghans continue to believe that the origins of the terrorists’ threats are still in Pakistan. Afghan military officials recently claimed that the security forces fought and killed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists in Kunar province.
In sharp contrast to the recent statements of Afghan NSA, the continued presence of LeT terrorists and the increasing violence clearly demonstrate that there is no “change” in Pakistani military’s strategic thinking vis-à-vis Afghanistan.
While the US military presence and war are certainly Afghanistan’s problem, the enablers here are Pakistan’s military rulers. The US military has no intention of chasing pro-Pakistan terrorists on the Afghan soil.
Washington has enough leverage to influence Pakistan’s destructive policies in Afghanistan, but that would hardly serve the goals of the US military in the region. Pakistan remains the US’ strategic ‘launching ground’ and, under President Donald Trump, the recent deterioration in Washington-Tehran relations only increase US’ dependence on Pakistan.