#Pakistan - New #Rupee devaluation shows economic risk before election



The Pakistani rupee slumped 3.8 per cent against the dollar on Monday before slightly recovering in what appeared to be the third currency devaluation in seven months by the central bank, traders said, amid a balance of payments crisis.
The rupee drop threatens to squeeze consumers, coming just days before Eidul Fitr and ahead of the July 25 general election.
The apparent devaluation shows signs of vulnerability in the country's nearly $300 billion economy, as dwindling foreign reserves and a widening current account deficit trigger speculation about going back to the International Monetary Fund for loans for the second time since 2013.
One leading economist, Ashfaque Ahmad Khan, said the interim government that now holds the reins during the election campaign might itself be forced to go to the IMF.
Khan said the interim government needs to take policy decisions to curb imports and increase exports, but so far the caretaker government has not taken enough steps.
“If we rely exclusively on the rupee devaluation to address our balance of payment crises, this will have disastrous consequences,” he said.
The outgoing PML-N government has touted its stewardship of the economy as a reason to bring the party back to power, but foreign reserves are now at a low of two months' worth of imports. The PML-N policy for years was to support keeping the rupee relatively stable in what was widely considered a managed float, but as the current account deficit widened and foreign reserves dropped to about half their peak, the policy shifted.
Since December, the rupee has fallen by about 14pc.
The rupee closed at 119.85 per US dollar on Monday after opening at 115.63. Earlier in the day, it traded close to 121 per dollar, traders said.
“On Monday the central bank didn't intervene (to support the rupee) and allowed the market to determine the rupee value,” Samiullah Tariq, director of research at Arif Habib Securities, told Reuters. “Pressure of a high current account deficit and dollar demand in the market also contributed to the rupee's fall.”
A spokesman for the State Bank of Pakistan didn't respond to Reuters' request for comment on the talk that the bank had withdrawn support for the rupee, triggering another devaluation.
Withdrawal of support would have the effect of devaluing the currency as the SBP is the most influential player in the thinly traded local foreign exchange market and controls what is widely considered a managed float system. In December and in March, the rupee was devalued, each time by about 5pc, by the central bank. Pakistan's economy is expected to expand by close to 6pc this year, the fastest pace in more than a decade, but a widening of the current account deficit has brought new worries. The current account deficit now stands at $14 billion, around 5.3pc of gross domestic product, an SBP official said. The economic outlook has been hurt by the fast depletion of foreign currency reserves, which now stand at just over $10bn.
Pakistan is currently in discussions with China for loans to ease pressure on its foreign currency reserves. Over the weekend, the shortage of foreign currency widened the spread at which the rupee is traded in the open market and the interbank market to 4 rupees.
"Whatever has happened again today is the reflection of growing pressure on the balance of payments side," Khan told Reuters.
“It also exposes the outgoing government's claims that they strengthened the economy [and] that they are leaving the economy in good shape. That unfortunately isn't the case.”

#Pakistan - No fair election without free media


Pakistanis will elect a new government on July 25. The caretaker administrations at the centre and provinces have taken charge and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) will be performing its legal duties to ensure a fair election. However, a fair election requires free and independent media that can inform the public and help the electorate in making informed choices on the Election Day. But media freedoms have consistently been under attack in recent months. This is a serious cause for concern and needs to be addressed at the earliest.
The country’s largest TV network was browbeaten into adopting a pliant line. The method chosen was even more alarming. Instead of legal proceedings through the electronic media regulator underhand means were employed to restrict the transmission of the channel in various parts of the country. This continued for weeks and ultimately the channel reportedly made a deal with the powerful quarters within the state. Since then the programming of the channel has undergone a noticeable change. The latest victim of such highhanded methods has been DAWN newspaper, which is country’s oldest and much respected newspaper.  The list is long and worrying.
Individual journalists, including citizen journalists such as Gul Bukhari, have been warned and intimidated and none other than the head of military’s public relations wing announced that the social media was under surveillance to check anti-state content. All states exercise some measure of scrutiny to ensure that national security imperatives are not compromised. Yet, journalistic freedoms need to be carefully handled as they relate to a vital citizen right of information and the sustenance of a culture that enables freedom of speech. These rights are under threat in Pakistan as the country enters into the election cycle.
At the centre of this tension between the media and the permanent institutions of the state i.e. the military and the judiciary is the aggressive posture of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his party that have been complaining of strong arm tactics by the establishment. Another fault line is the media coverage of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, its strong rhetoric against the deep state and public mobilisation against some of the instruments of Pakistan’s crackdown on terrorism, a subset of the global war on terror.  The army has concluded that it’s foreign sponsored and a threat to the national security. Resultantly, there has been a blackout and public conversations have shifted to social media.
Sadly, Pakistan’s media remains disunited and unable to forge a common strategy to counter the growing curbs their freedoms. A recent example of the disarray is the statement issued by PFUJ against the press conference of the DG ISPR. PFUJ’s strongly worded statement was retracted a day later thereby showing how even the media bodies are much susceptible to pressure. As regards the electronic media, the media owners are so driven by profit that they have no qualms about forsaking freedoms lest their business is affected by the state controls.
Pakistanis deserve better. Access to information through independent media must be a non-negotiable right. Foreign press has been reporting on this issue and international watchdogs have issued statements asking for protection of journalists. In the globalised information age, it is impossible to implement censorship.  Pakistan’s image suffers each time there is an attempt to muzzle the media. The political parties and the media houses have an important role to play to ensure that citizen rights are not denied. Never was media unity more needed and never was it as fragile as it is today.
All of this casts an ominous shadow over the electoral process and the future direction of democracy in the country. 

#Pakistani #Christians Under Attack : Asylum family in plea to PM over fears of death in Pakistan

A Christian man who has spent six years seeking asylum has appealed to the prime minister to allow him and his family to stay in the UK.
Maqsood Bakhsh fled Pakistan in 2012 with his wife and two sons after Islamic extremists threatened to kill him because of his religious beliefs.
They now live in Glasgow and fear their lives would be in danger if they returned to Pakistan.
The Home Office said every asylum case was assessed on its individual merits.
It said officials would contact the Bakhsh family to discuss their circumstances after their case was highlighted by the Church of Scotland.
The catalyst for Mr Bakhsh leaving Pakistan with his wife Parveen, their sons Somer and Areebs - then aged nine and seven - was the murder of two Christians shot outside a court in Faisalabad in 2010.
Pastor Rashid Emmanuel, 32, and Sajid, 24, were accused of writing a pamphlet critical of the Prophet Muhammad that flouted Pakistan's controversial blasphemy law, which carries the death penalty.
Mr Bakhsh, 50, claims the people responsible for the deaths believed he was in league with the two men and would kill him and his family if they had the chance.
The Home Office has rejected the family's previous asylum applications and they have now been told they have exhausted the process and have no right to appeal.
However, they plan to launch a legal challenge.

'My sons feel safe here'

Mr Bakhsh said: "Prime Minister, please help us because I do not understand why the Home Office keep rejecting us.
"They keep telling us that some parts of Pakistan are safe for Christians.
"It is true that lots of Christians live in Pakistan but once you have been targeted by Islamic extremists who know your name and your face, it is impossible to live.
"Four of my friends have been killed by Islamic extremists and my sister-in-law's brother is serving life in jail because of the blasphemy law.
"My nephew was kidnapped last month and no one knows what has happened to him."
Mr Bakhsh, who was a commissioner at the Kirk's General Assembly in 2017, worked as a data analyst in Pakistan and holds two masters degrees, while his wife is a trained neo-natal midwife with 17 years experience.
Due to their immigration status both have been unable to work since arriving in Scotland and survive on benefits and charity.
Mr Bakhsh added: "We love this city, my sons feel Scottish and they are thriving here.
"They feel safe, which is my biggest concern, and want to stay with all their friends - the only people they know - and get a good education."
Rev Linda Pollock, minister at Possilpark Parish Church where Mr Bakhsh is an elder, said their situation was "unconscionable".
She added: "I hope that the Home Office will re-examine the family's case, stop treating them as numbers and acknowledge them as human beings because they have so much to give to Scotland."
The family's MP, Labour's Paul Sweeney, plans to raise the case in the House of Commons.
A Home Office spokeswoman said: "The UK has a proud history of granting asylum to those who need our protection and every case is assessed on its individual merits."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-44432107

#Pakistan - #PPP - Shehla Raza to contest election against Imran in Karachi

Pakistan Peoples’ Party on Sunday nominated former Sindh Assembly deputy speaker Shehla Raza to contest against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan in NA 243 (Karachi), as the party announced its candidates for 160 national and provincial seats of Sindh.
The party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will contest from Larkana (NA-200) and party’s stronghold Lyari (NA-246), former president Asif Ali Zardari will contest from NA- 213 (Nawabshah) and former Opposition Leader Khurshid Shah has been nominated for a seat in Sukkur (NA-206), said the declaration.
Former President Zardari’s sister Faryal Talpur will contest from provincial seats of Larkana (PS-10), Nawabshah (PS-37).
Zardari’s brother-in-law Munawar Talpur will be the party’s candidate from Mirpurkhas on NA seat.
Agha Siraj Durrani will contest from Shikarpur (PS-9), Imtiaz Sheikh from (PS-7), Sohail Anwar Siyal from Larkana (PS-12), Nisar Khuhro from Larkana (PS-11), former Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah from Jamshoro (PS-80).
KARACHI
The party has nominated Jam Abdul Karim Jokhio to contest from NA-236 (Malir 1), Abdul Hakim Baloch from NA-237 (Malir 2), Agha Rafiullah from NA-238 (Malir 3), Syed Imran Haider Abidi to contest from NA-239 (Korangi), Sheikh Muhammad Feroz from NA-240 (Korangi), Muazam Ali Qureshi from NA-241 (Korangi).
Iqbal Sand from NA-242 (Karachi East), Asad Alam Niazi from NA-244 (East), Farrukh Niaz Tanoli to from NA-245 (East), Abdul Aziz Memon from NA-247 (South), Abdul Qadir Patel from NA-248, Ali Ahmed from NA-250 (West), Naz Baloch from PS-127 (Karachi West).
http://www.thesindhtimes.com/pak/06/shehla-raza-contest-election-imran-karachi/