Tuesday, January 2, 2018
What Donald Trump can really do to 'rein in' Pakistan
The US president has once again slammed Pakistan for its non-cooperation in the war against terror. Apart from criticism and tweets, what can Donald Trump do to force Islamabad to comply with his demands? DW examines.
The Pakistani government has reacted angrily to US President Donald Trump's first 2018 tweet, in which he lashed out at the South Asian country for taking billions of dollars in US aid in exchange for "lies and deceit."
"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!," wrote Trump.
On Tuesday, Pakistan's foreign ministry summoned the US ambassador to Islamabad to lodge protest against Trump's statement. Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif told media that Pakistan had done enough for the US. "We have already told the US that we will not do more, so Trump's 'no more' does not hold any importance," Asif said.
Anger in Pakistan
There is an outburst on social media in the South Asian country, with many Pakistanis urging the government to break all ties with the US.
Pakistan says that Trump's criticism is unjustified as it has done its best to help the US and the international community in their battle against Islamist groups in Afghanistan. But many political commentators, including Pakistani analysts, accuse the country's powerful military of using a number of militant groups as "strategic assets" to keep pressure on the Afghan government and India. The Pakistani military denies these allegations.
While the administration of the former US President Barack Obama was more careful in its dealing with Pakistan, Donald Trump's approach is quite blunt. In August last year, Trump singled out Pakistan as a major problem for the US in his Afghanistan policy speech.
With Trump's latest tweet against Pakistan, ties between Washington and Islamabad have hit rock bottom. While the Pakistani government is hopeful the US can't hurt Pakistan due to the fact that it has China's backing, there is definitely a sense of unease in the country as no one underestimates the US power.
But apart from lampooning Pakistan, what can Trump realistically do to force Islamabad to comply with his administration's demands? It is a well-established fact, acknowledged by Trump's predecessors Obama and George W. Bush, that Pakistan's support is vital to achieving military objectives in Afghanistan. Also, an unstable Pakistan, with a large nuclear arsenal and active militant Islamist groups in the country, could pose a huge threat to the entire region and the world. Any unilateral US attack on Pakistani soil, or even sanctions, could add fuel to the fire.
But Trump has some realistic options at his disposal.
Reduction in military aid
The Trump administration has already reduced Pakistan's military aid. On Monday, the White House said it would continue to withhold $255 million (€211 million) in military aid for Pakistan due to its frustration with the nation's reluctance to dismantle terrorist networks on its soil. In August last year, the administration temporarily withheld the money, which was part of a Congress-approved $1.1 billion (0.9 billion euros) aid package for Pakistan.
"The United States does not plan to spend the $255 million in FY 2016 foreign military financing for Pakistan at this time," a National Security Council spokesman said Monday. "The President has made clear that the United States expects Pakistan to take decisive action against terrorists and militants on its soil, and that Pakistan's actions in support of the South Asia strategy will ultimately determine the trajectory of our relationship, including future security assistance."
The official said the Trump administration would continue to review Pakistan's level of cooperation in security areas.
Aijaz Awan, a Pakistani defense analyst and former military official, told DW the financial reductions would force Pakistan to find new allies, such as Russia.
"The options are open for Pakistan. Russia wants to support the Taliban to keep 'Islamic State' (IS) at bay. Moscow is also looking to minimize US influence in southern Asia. It works for Pakistan," Awan said.
"The US is failing in Afghanistan. Now it wants to put all blame on Pakistan for this failure," the former military official added.
Economic pressure
Another area where Pakistan is susceptible to US pressure is the economy. Islamabad heavily depends on global institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – both under US influence – to keep its economy running, a fact that could ultimately work in Trump's favor.
The US administration could increase financial pressure on Pakistan to achieve its political objectives.
"The US can take away Pakistan's non-NATO ally status. Pakistan also needs financial aid and Washington has great influence over the international monetary institutions. It could ask them not to grant loans to Pakistan," Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, told DW.
Although China is heavily investing in Pakistan's infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its military aid to Pakistan is in no way close to what Washington has been offering for decades.
Sanctions on individuals
The Trump administration could also impose individual sanctions on some military and government officials. This could be a huge embarrassment for the country, particularly the military. While the military's economic investments as an institution are largely domestic, the top cadre is believed to have property and bank accounts overseas, including the US.
"The US can also use the pretext of Haqqani Network and slap more sanctions on Pakistan. On the other hand Pakistan can stop NATO supplies through its territory. Around 20,000 US troops and some 50,000 US contractors are currently based in Afghanistan. It could create problems for the US," Qazi said.
If Trump opts for this measure, it would deeply offend the Pakistani military establishment. It is, however, unlikely that the situation would escalate to that extent.
Travel ban
Trump's controversial travel ban on largely Muslim nations has recently been approved by the US Supreme Court. It covers people from Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Chad, with North Koreans and certain government officials from Venezuela added to the current version. When Trump announced the ban in early 2017, many analysts were surprised at the exclusion of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan from the list.
The US can add Pakistan to the list. That would put Pakistan in a tight spot. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis live in the United States and contribute immensely to their home country's economy.
Increased drone attacks
The drone war against militants based along the Afghan-Pakistan border was one of the cornerstones of Obama's anti-terrorism policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. While Obama engaged with Pakistani authorities diplomatically, he intensified drone strikes near Pakistan's tribal areas, and occasionally on Pakistani soil.
The drone campaign yielded some results also, with the US killing a number of high profile militant commanders, including the former Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansour in May 2016.
On December 26, 2017, the US killed an Afghan Taliban leader in a drone strike in Pakistan's tribal Kurram agency, according to media reports. Jamiuddin was believed to be linked to the Haqqani Network, a militant group that Washington accuses Islamabad of backing.
Although the Trump administration is not carrying out as many drone strikes in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, it could not only restart the campaign but extend it to the mainland.
Terror-sponsoring state
While it will be extremely tough for the US to get the UN behind such a move, the Trump administration can still unilaterally designate Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism. The countries currently on the US State Department's list are Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria.
The US Country Reports on Terrorism also describes "terrorist safe havens" as countries that "…where terrorists are able to organize, plan, raise funds, communicate, recruit, train, transit, and operate in relative security because of inadequate governance capacity, political will, or both."
In a Congress-mandated report published in July 2017, the State Department listed Pakistan among the nations and regions providing "safe havens" to terrorists. It stated that militant groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad continued to operate, train, organize and fundraise inside the country in 2016.
The state sponsors of terrorism come under severe US sanctions and scrutiny, including a ban on arms-related exports and sales, financial restrictions including loans from the World Bank and the IMF, and economic sanctions on individuals and companies.
Security experts say this could be the last measure the US would want to take against Pakistan.
Pakistan's concerns
Despite the present mistrust between the two countries, US-Pakistani ties are unlikely to break down completely. History tells us that Pakistani authorities have maintained a minimum level of cooperation with Washington.
At the same time, only a one-sided assessment would put the blame of the US "failure" in Afghanistan on Pakistan. The Obama administration acknowledged Islamabad's cooperation in a number of security areas, mainly in the defeat of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
According to documents reviewed by Reuters news agency, the Pakistani government is already taking measures to address some of the US concerns. Reuters reported on Monday that Pakistan plans to seize control of charities and financial assets linked to Hafiz Saeed, who Washington designated a terrorist last year. India accuses Saeed of masterminding the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks that killed 169 people. Pakistan denies Saeed's involvement in the attacks.
But experts say the Trump administration has to take Pakistan's reservations about the growing US-India ties into account if it is genuinely interested in resolving the militancy issue in the region. Pakistan has fought four wars against India and continues to see the rising economic and military power in its neighborhood as a threat. Islamabad is very skeptical about New Delhi's increased role in Afghanistan.
Any measure that Trump could possibly take to force Pakistan to comply with his demands would not be successful if his administration doesn't address Pakistan's concerns about India.
Pakistan - NA meeting reveals loss of more than 6,000 lives in war against terror in FATA
At least 6,112 people from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have been killed while 6,707 others have suffered from injuries ever since the commencement of the war against terror in 2001, Pakistani lawmakers were told on Tuesday.
Officials of Fata law and order division disclosed these statistics while briefing the parliamentarians during the National Assembly’s standing committee meeting on the Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) in Islamabad, reported the media.
#Balochistan: Previously abducted Baloch teacher’s dead body found
The Baloch teacher Noor Ahmad was abducted on 28 July 216 at a Pakistani security forces check post in Gehna region of Tump in district Kech Balochistan.
He remained in the illegal custody of Pakistani forces until Tuesday (January 2, 2018) when his dead body was found in Mirabad area of Tump.
He was a teacher at Primary school Pullabad in Tump as well as a resident of the same area.
The deceased was a maternal uncle of Canada-based Baloch political activist and chairperson of Baloch Student Organisation-Azad, Karima Baloch.
http://balochwarna.com/
Pakistan - New year, new hike
The federal government has found the perfect way to wish us well in the new year, by choosing to remind us that very little actually changes when the clocks are reset on January 1. Late on Sunday (Dec 31, 2017), the government announced that petroleum product prices would be increased with effect from Monday, January 1. The price increase is significant. The new price of petrol stands at Rs81.53 per litre, up by just above Rs4 per litre. The price of diesel now stands at Rs38.91 per litre, up by almost Rs4 per litre. In an oil-dependent economy, this means that inflation is now guaranteed to increase this year. It is strange, however, that the announcement came from Adviser to the PM on Finance Miftah Ismail. Lest we forget, the country is still without a finance minister. To be fair to the government, Ogra had recommended double the price hike and the government decided to pass on half of the proposed hike. This is a measure that is not unexpected, especially given the precarious position of Pakistan’s petroleum products supply in the last few weeks.
But we must also wonder to what degree the change in petrol prices reflect the cost Pakistan will pay for agreeing to the IMF demand of devaluing the Pakistani rupee. Since oil products are primarily an imported item, any increase in dollar value compared to the rupee will show up in the price of petrol consumption inside the country. If a domestic price hike follows the increase in petrol prices, there will be little impact on Pakistan’s floundering export sector. The only impact will be to push real wages down since wages are the slowest to adjust to any changes in the price of commodities. Controlling inflation is central to making sure that the devaluation of local currency improves export. Pakistan’s petrol prices have been among some of the lowest in the region; GST on petrol has been reduced by five percent to ensure that the price remains controlled. The only problem is that the government seems to insist that the price hike has come from an increase in oil prices in the international market, not its decision to devalue the rupee. If the rupee-to-dollar ratio goes up further, then a further petrol price hike will be unavoidable – without making a dent on the country’s tax revenues. Our currency value and the international oil prices are both issues that will shape the future of oil prices in the country. This is not an optimistic start to the new year.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/263239-new-year-new-hike
Pakistan - ‘People haven’t voted just for Mashal, they’ve voted against extremism’
Iqbal Lala urges government to declare 2018 as the year against terrorism.
“People have not just voted for my son. They have voted against the dark shadows of extremism,” Mashal Khan’s father Iqbal Lala says, referring to Herald magazine’s announcement that the Mardan University student killed in a mob lynching incident earlier in the year was its person of the year based on a popular vote.
In an interview with Daily Times on Monday, Lala said he was hopeful that one day his family would get justice. “We will fight till our last breathe to safeguard many more Mashals studying in the various institutions of Pakistan,” he said.
He said his son’s election was a sign that people were tired of the suffocating environment first brought about by the Zia regime. “A progressive era will come about very soon,” he hoped.
“Let’s decide to devote this new year to efforts against terrorism and extremism. We owe this to the Pakistanis who have lost their lives due to terrorism. a progressive,” he said.
Iqbal Lala said the silent majority in the country was supportive of peace, democracy, and freedom of expression. “Hate mongers and fanatics are in a minority yet they have made our lives so difficult over the years,” he regretted.
On court proceedings in the Mashal Khan murder case, he said, “From day one, I have pointed out the need to take action against those secret hands that orchestrated Mashal’s killing but the government has just arrested those who appeared in the videos. This does not fulfill the requirements of justice as far as I’m concerned.”
He held that the provincial government had not fulfilled promises made earlier in the case. “So far, 50 witness have been investigated since others have refused due to pressure. The government is not ready to provide security to them. Four men clearly identifiable in videos lynching Mashal have yet to be arrested. We demand that these four should be arrested as soon as possible,” he said.
Iqbal revealed that Mashal’s case proceedings were being held in the famous Bacha Khan ward in Haripur Jail where the ‘frontier Ghandi’ spent his prison days during the struggle against British raj.
However, Lala isn’t completely satisfied with the political party that claims to uphold Bacha Khan’s legacy. He said most of the ANP comrades were supporting him in the case, but there were still others in the party who were supporting some men with a suspicions role in the murder for the upcoming general elections.
“It means they are backtracking from Bacha Khan’s philosophy. This is not a good sign for those who want peace, non-violence and love. The real followers of the Baba should raise their voice against these people in the party,” He said.
“My son was also a part of the pro-peace students movement at the campus named after the great Khan Abdul Wali Khan. He was waging a non-violent struggle at the campus, raising voice for democracy, and human rights. He lost his life in that struggle.”
“My family has lost its Mashal. We have suffered the loss silently and with patience and perseverance. We don’t want any other family to go through what we have gone through,” he said.
“We are not fighting the legal battle to get revenge from the killers, but to establish an example for justice against extremism and terrorism in this country. Our Mashal will never come back. When we buried him under threat of a fundamentalist attack on the funeral day, we made a silent vow that we will defeat ideologies that breed extremism, hatred and fear.
“My only appeal to the government is to declare the year 2018 as a year against terrorism and extremism, because we don’t have strength in our shoulders to carry more coffins of young Pakistani men and women who want to live in a peaceful and just society. If we still don’t get serious about this disease that is killing our social fabric that will mean that we have learnt nothing from the loss of Mashal and thousands of other Pakistanis,” Lala said, ending the interview by reciting revolutionary poet Faiz Ahmad Faiz’s poem
US to announce further action against Pakistan within days: White House
The White House on Tuesday said it wanted to see Pakistan do more to fight terrorism and that it would likely announce actions to pressure Islamabad within days.
"Our goal is that we know that they can do more to stop terrorism and we want them to do that," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told reporters.
"In terms of specific actions, I think you’ll see some more details come out on that in the next 24 to 48 hours."
The announcement comes amid a period of heightened tensions between the two nations, after the US president said that Washington had foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years.
In a tweet on Monday, US President Donald Trump accused Pakistan of giving nothing but lies and deceit, thinking US leaders to be fools.
"They give safe havens to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!" he had said.
Haley accuses Pakistan of 'playing double game for years'
Minutes earlier, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced that the US was withholding $255 million in aid to Islamabad, accusing Pakistan of failing to cooperate fully in the fight against terrorism.
"The administration is withholding $255 million in assistance to Pakistan. There are clear reasons for this. Pakistan has played a double game for years," Haley told reporters at the United Nations on Tuesday.
"They work with us at times, and they also harbour the terrorists that attack our troops in Afghanistan," she said.
"That game is not acceptable to this administration. We expect far more cooperation from Pakistan in the fight against terrorism," she added.
"The president is willing to go to great lengths to stop all funding from Pakistan as they continue to harbour terrorists."
Last month, Pakistan joined more than 120 countries to defy the US president and vote in favour of a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution calling for America to drop its recent recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
But Haley said the Pakistan aid issue was not connected to the vote on Jerusalem, adding, "It is entirely connected to Pakistan's harbouring of terrorists."
"However, as I said earlier in December, we won't forget the Jerusalem vote," she added.
Trump tweet negates 'decades of sacrifices by Pakistanis'
Trump's tweet on Monday was followed by strong reaction from Islamabad, with Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif saying that the US President's 'no more' holds no importance.
Pakistan also summoned the US ambassador in a rare public rebuke after Trump's allegations.
Earlier in the day, a high-level huddle of the Pakistani civil-military leadership expressed disappointment over the US president's anti-Pakistan statement, however, decided not to take measures in haste in reply to US allegations.
Trump's comments "struck with great insensitivity" and "negated the decades of sacrifices made by the Pakistani nation", read a press statement issued after the National Security Committee (NSC) meeting in Islamabad.
It said that Pakistan can not be blamed for failures in Afghanistan and accusing allies will not lead to the establishment of peace in the neighbouring country.
#Pakistan - US is no longer interested in defeating terrorism: Chairman PPP Bilawal Bhutto
Reacting to US President Donald Trump’s allegations against Pakistan, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhuttoi Zardari on Tuesday said “US is no longer interested in defeating terrorism.
In a string of tweets, a day after Trump accused Islamabad of “deceit and lies”, the PPP chairman said cutting off moneys Pakistan owes for the assistance it has already rendered doesn’t encourage further cooperation.
In a reference to US President’s claim that Washington has given more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years to Islamabad, Bilawal said : “Someone please explain to @realDonaldTrump difference between coalition support fund reimbursement for work done & USaid ostensibly given for humanitarian reasons, to win hearts & minds.Cutting off moneys owed for assistance already rendered does not encourage further cooperation,” he tweeted.
While the PPP chairman criticized the US president for his tirade, he also called for Islamabad to “articulate and implement a counter violent extremism strategy not because of what the US wants but because we need to succeed.”
“We also have to come to terms with the fact, US is no longer interested in defeating terrorism.”
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said the US wants to win in Afghanistan, Iran and Syria and the many quagmires they are involved with. “All they are left with is excuses, blame games and denial.”
He said Pakistan will eradicate extremism because it’s in its interest not because of what the US president says “ We will not allow the US to scapegoat Pakistan for its own failures in the region,” said he.
Bilawal Bhutto said only his party has experience in handling both the US country’s own domestic terrorism issue, recalling how the PPP governments launched Pakistan’s first, most extensive and most successful anti-terror operations.
“We also shut NATO supplies & air bases until the US apologized for Salala,” he said in a reference to cross border US raid on Pakistani outpost that martyred dozens of Pakistani sliders near Afghan border.
http://www.thesindhtimes.com/pak/us-no-longer-interested-defeating-terrorism-chairman-ppp-bilawal-bhutto/